Democratic Candidate Witching And Chartography

“Witching for water” is the colloquial term given to the use of an-often Y-shaped “divining rod” by a “witcher,” someone with allegedly special skill to find hidden underground water sources.

So, to “witch” for something is to employ an alleged skill with a simple, and readily-available tool (often as a common, everyday item with no seeming special qualities) to search for something hidden, and find it.

Sometimes also called “dousing,” “divining,” or “witching” for water is considered a fraudulent practice, also known as a pseudoscience, which has not and cannot withstand the rigors of independent scientific testing to validate the claims made by adherents, practitioners, and supporters.

Despite the overwhelming evidence contrary to the claims made by adherents, practitioners, and supporters, the practice remains somewhat popular today, especially among farmers who need water to irrigate their crops.

So again, to “witch” for something is to use readily-available common tools to find something hidden.

In this case, it’s polling data, and the Top Four Democratic Candidates for Party Nominee: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Pete Buttigieg.

A former VP, two U.S. Senators, and one Mayor of South Bend, IN, with an estimated population of 101,000, it’s a modest-sized college town (the University of Notre Dame is nearby) – the 306th most populous city in America – about half the size of Huntsville, AL, are contending to be the Democratic Party’s nominee in July.

The charts are telling, and from the outset, while demonstrating normal and up-and-down weekly chart, over the long-haul, the trends haven’t changed significantly.

What’s fascinating is Biden’s trend down, Bernie’s trend down, while Liz’s trend is up, along with Buttigieg’s trend. Again, that trend has been established from the outset.

The early chart is Polling: To 9-17-19.

The most recent chart is beneath, and is dated 12-27-19.

Notice something interesting: Only TWO candidates’ lines show positive movement– Elizabeth Warren, and Pete Buttigieg. All others show downward, or largely static trends: Bernie, Biden, and Harris, who has now dropped out of the race.

Note also the prospective intersecting dates, the points in time at which the candidates would overtake another in popularity, or support.

For Liz Warren, the first chart showed her overtaking Bernie in support in

Who will it be? Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg?

As the chart below shows, Elizabeth Warren is the Democratic candidate most likely to be chosen as the party’s Presidential nominee.

Warren and Buttigieg are the only two candidates who have an upward trajectory, while Biden and Sanders both show a downward trajectory, with Biden’s downward trajectory more pronounced than Bernie’s.

California Senator Kamala Harris has announced that she has dropped out of the race.

New Jersey Senator Cory Booker has announced that he won’t be in the 6th Democratic Debate December 19 debate at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles, where PBS NewsHour and POLITICO will be the sponsors, with Moderators

Gabbard Attacks Buttigieg at 5th Democratic Debate in Atlanta

Last night, at the 5th Democratic Debate held at Tyler Perry Studios in Atlanta, Georgia, Hawaiian Democratic Representative Tulsi Gabbard (2) – whose polling numbers are consistently “tanked,” and has announced that she will not seek reelection to the House – attacked South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, mischaracterizing his remarks made in response to a question at an earlier forum in which 5 of the “Democratic presidential candidates addressed issues impacting the nation’s Latino population at a forum held at Cal State Los Angeles on Sunday.”

The question asked him at that LA forum was, “Mr. Mayor, after a number of Americans were murdered in northern Mexico, President Trump suggested sending U.S. troops to help Mexico deal with the cartels. With your military experience, is there a way to deal with the cartels that doesn’t violate Mexico’s sovereignty?”

The YouTube video link below shows the question and his answer, uninterrupted, and in context.

At last night’s debate in Atlanta, in response to a question asked by a moderator, Representative Gabbard said that,

Elizabeth Warren in Three Charts

MA Senator Elizabeth Warren -D

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren is steadily rising as the Democratic Party’s favored nominee for President.

As of October 1, 2019, aggregate polling averages from Real Clear Politics indicated that she was within 4.2 percentage points of tying with former VP Joe Biden in public approval to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for President.

Today’s aggregated average polling (10-2-19) shows that Warren has gained 1.4% points from yesterday, while Biden has slipped 1.1%.

Polling: 10-2-19

At this rate – given her candidacy’s current trajectory and trend, the current conditions, and barring unforeseen circumstances – by the end of the week, Elizabeth Warren will very likely tie with Joe Biden by the week’s end, and establish a commanding lead over Biden in popularity no later than 30 days (by the end of October 2019) early-to-mid January 2020.

Clearly, her message is increasingly, and rapidly resonating with voters.

In comparison, former Vice President Joe Biden’s ratings are largely flat-lined-to-declined, having started out at 29.0% on December 9, 2018, moved through a high of

2020 Democratic Trends… and Pocahantas

U.S. Senator from Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren

Who’ll get the nod?

My money is on Warren.

Why?

She identifies a problem, lays out a case, and states a solution. She’s a mom, teacher, an attorney, a law professor, and now, a politician – a small-town Oklahoma girl who made good, despite the odds against her.

She gets it.

Despite the Current White House Occupant’s attempt to slap a derisive nickname on Senator Elizabeth Warren (ironically defaming Native Americans in the process), Senator Warren has done exceedingly well.
For those unaware of American history, Pocahontas was a Algonkian indigenous American, and daughter of Chief Powhatan, a princess who fostered peace among the Jamestown, Virginia English colonists/settlers.

She may be most renown for saving Captain John Smith’s life after he was captured by her father’s men.

Later, she converted to Christianity, was baptized as Rebecca, and accepted a marriage proposal by prominent settler and tobacco farmer John Rolfe, and was wed April 5, 1614.

“The Baptism of Pocahantas,” by John Gadsby Chapman, Artist; Oil on canvas 12′ x 18′, 1839; placed 1840 Rotunda U.S. Capitol

So the history is a dignified, and marvelous story, despite the Idiot-Ignoramus in Chief’s attempt to use a good name to defame her. It only shows what kind of miserably pitiful character he is.

But, more to the point.

The Marriage of Pocahontas to John Rolfe

If you’ve ever read a prospectus for any financial or investment vehicle – either stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etc. – you’ve probably read the following disclaimer:
“Past performance is

Democratic Tea Leaves II

In a recent entry dated August 8, 2019, entitled Reading Democratic Tea Leaves I noted one, or two very fine, somewhat minor points overlooked by most pundits.

One, that like most other Democratic nominee candidates, former Vice President Joe Biden’s support has largely stagnated – even though it has been higher than most other candidates.

Vice President Joe Biden, Official Portrait 2013

And second, only two other candidates have had any SIGNIFICANT INCREASE in their level of support (as defined by polling) since the inception of their candidacy: South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren.

Since the announcement of his candidacy as the Democratic nominee for President, former Vice President Joe Biden’s support has gone from 29.0% to 30.8%. That’s an increase of only 6.21%.

October 26, 2016; South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg

In sharp contrast, “Mayor Pete” has gone from 1.0% and is now (August 10) at 6.5%, and has polled as high as 8.4% from April 20 through May 2. That’s an increase of 550% to date. If fluctuations are considered (low to high), that’s 740%.

Senator Warren, however, has gone from 5.3% and is now at 18.3% – her highest ever polling. That’s an increase, and fluctuation of 245.28%.

Senator Sanders started at