Warm Southern Breeze

"… there is no such thing as nothing."

Democratic Candidate Witching And Chartography

Posted by Warm Southern Breeze on Saturday, December 28, 2019

“Witching for water” is the colloquial term given to the use of an-often Y-shaped “divining rod” by a “witcher,” someone with allegedly special skill to find hidden underground water sources.

So, to “witch” for something is to employ an alleged skill with a simple, and readily-available tool (often as a common, everyday item with no seeming special qualities) to search for something hidden, and find it.

Sometimes also called “dousing,” “divining,” or “witching” for water is considered a fraudulent practice, also known as a pseudoscience, which has not and cannot withstand the rigors of independent scientific testing to validate the claims made by adherents, practitioners, and supporters.

Despite the overwhelming evidence contrary to the claims made by adherents, practitioners, and supporters, the practice remains somewhat popular today, especially among farmers who need water to irrigate their crops.

So again, to “witch” for something is to use readily-available common tools to find something hidden.

In this case, it’s polling data, and the Top Four Democratic Candidates for Party Nominee: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Pete Buttigieg.

A former VP, two U.S. Senators, and one Mayor of South Bend, IN, with an estimated population of 101,000, it’s a modest-sized college town (the University of Notre Dame is nearby) – the 306th most populous city in America – about half the size of Huntsville, AL, are contending to be the Democratic Party’s nominee in July.

The charts are telling, and from the outset, while demonstrating normal and up-and-down weekly chart, over the long-haul, the trends haven’t changed significantly.

What’s fascinating is Biden’s trend down, Bernie’s trend down, while Liz’s trend is up, along with Buttigieg’s trend. Again, that trend has been established from the outset.

The early chart is Polling: To 9-17-19.

The most recent chart is beneath, and is dated 12-27-19.

Notice something interesting: Only TWO candidates’ lines show positive movement– Elizabeth Warren, and Pete Buttigieg. All others show downward, or largely static trends: Bernie, Biden, and Harris, who has now dropped out of the race.

Note also the prospective intersecting dates, the points in time at which the candidates would overtake another in popularity, or support.

For Liz Warren, the first chart showed her overtaking Bernie in support in late August 2019, while a projected overtaking of Biden would occur in June 2020.

The second chart shows Warren overtaking Biden in late February, or early March, while it shows she overtook Bernie in popularity in mid-November, with the poll dated 11-13.

As well, what these two charts show, is the change in popularity for all the candidates. Biden has gone from practically static to decline. Bernie has gone from a marked decline to nominal decline to static, while Buttigieg shows a slight long-term rise, trending from a maximum potential support of 14% to a maximum potential of 18% by Convention time – July 13-16, 2020.

Bernie has gone from an initial 17.7% support to a potential minimum of 12% – a nearly 5% loss.

Biden has gone from a maximum of 30% support and static to a significant declining trend with a potential minimum support of 24%.

Liz Warren has gone from an initial low of 6% and 4.3% to a maximum of 26.8% on October 9, to a current 15.2%. Only her trend is relatively unchanged – the angle has continually been upward only, and significantly so.

Buttigieg’s positive trend is only modestly upward in comparison to Senator Warren’s trend.

Polling: To 9-17-19

Polling to 12-27-19

Political pundits of Democratic and Republican stripe are soothsaying away, appearing on Sunday morning news, and teevee talk shows, podcasts (which are enjoying a resurgence in popularity), and news stories simply to talk the bannerline for their chosen candidate.

What’s the “bannerline”?

It simply means that the political soothsayers, and others, reduce their pitch to its strongest points by preparing their message in advance, aim at what they want the listener to take home (remember), trim to its barest, flashiest words, then repeat ad nauseam.

That’s talking the bannerline.

Like all good sideshow carnival barkers, Trump is a pro at it.

But, back to the point.

Trump’s DISAPPROVAL rating is 54.8%, down only slightly from the initial 62%, and has never fallen below 47.8%. The ONLY politician with MORE DISAPPROVAL than Trump, is Kentucky U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell with a 26.3% approval rating.

Hypothetical election polling against the Top 4 Democratic Nominee Candidates all show Trump LOSING to them in the exceeding majority of polls taken.

Polling by CNN, Emerson, USA Today/Suffolk, IBD/TIPP, FOX News, Marquette, Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA, and WHDH/Emerson all show Trump LOSING CONSISTENTLY to Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Harris and Bloomberg anywhere from 1 to 27 points over a period of time ranging from 10-12 to 12-20-19.

The Generic Congressional Vote polling shows solidly and 100% favoring Democrats exclusively. NO REPUBLICANS were charted.

As well, a consistent MAJORITY agree that the nation is headed in the wrong direction, and disapprove of the direction in which the State of the Union is going.

Betting Odds for the Democrats’ Presidential Nomination is presently favoring Biden at 32.2, while Sanders is the runner-up with 21.5, and Warren with 18.9, with Buttigieg at 13.3.

National polling for the Democratic candidates shows Biden leading Sanders nationally by 9.3, with 28.1, while in Iowa, Buttigieg is outpolling Sanders by 2, with 22, while Sanders leads Buttigieg by 2 in New Hampshire, with 19. Biden and Warren trail with 14.3 and 13.3, respectively.

The Super Tuesday states of Nevada, California, Texas, North Carolina, Massachusetts, Colorado, Virginia, Oklahoma, and Maine all show mixed results.

In California, Biden barely leads by 0.2 over Bernie’s 21.

In Texas, Biden leads Sanders by 12.4.

In North Carolina, Biden leads Warren by 17.

Senator Warren leads in her home state of Massachusetts over Biden by 6.5.

Sanders leads Biden by 1 in Colorado, with 26.

Biden leads by 19 in Virginia over Sanders with 36.

In Senator Warren’s native state of Oklahoma, Biden leads by 14 to Warren’s 12.

And in Maine, Warren leads by 3.5 over Biden’s 23.

Clearly, polling suggests the race appears to be between Biden, Warren, and Sanders.

Most pundits are saying that Biden is very much riding Obama’s coattails, and many have noticed with apparent curiosity that Obama has not endorsed anyone, which would give rise to concerns that Obama might not have the fullest level of confidence in Biden’s potential.

Historically, of course, independent of succession, Vice Presidents DO NOT get elected in their own right, and to date, ONLY 5 VPs have ever been elected in their own right as President – Adams, Jefferson, Van Buren, Nixon, and G.H.W. Bush.

That’s 5/45, or 11.1% – excluding Grover Cleveland, who was the only POTUS elected twice, not in succession, as the 22nd, and 24th POTUS.

However… the United States Senate website writes this about Senators:
“To date, 16 senators have also served as president of the United States. Three Senators, Warren G. Harding, John F. Kennedy, and Barack Obama moved directly from the U.S. Senate to the White House.”

That’s 16/45, or 35.5%, of all POTUSes who were ever a Senator. And 3 of the 16, or 18.75%, were elected as POTUS directly from the Senate.

Clearly, being an incumbent in some capacity conveys advantages.

Biden has no such advantage. Sanders, Warren, and Buttigieg do (though he is not a Senator, Buttigieg is an incumbent).

I predict a Democratically-controlled Senate, an increase in the Democratic House Majority, and a Democratic sweep of the White House.

We’ll see what happens.

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