Warm Southern Breeze

"… there is no such thing as nothing."

Elizabeth Warren in Three Charts

Posted by Warm Southern Breeze on Wednesday, October 2, 2019

MA Senator Elizabeth Warren -D

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren is steadily rising as the Democratic Party’s favored nominee for President.

As of October 1, 2019, aggregate polling averages from Real Clear Politics indicated that she was within 4.2 percentage points of tying with former VP Joe Biden in public approval to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for President.

Today’s aggregated average polling (10-2-19) shows that Warren has gained 1.4% points from yesterday, while Biden has slipped 1.1%.

Polling: 10-2-19

At this rate – given her candidacy’s current trajectory and trend, the current conditions, and barring unforeseen circumstances – by the end of the week, Elizabeth Warren will very likely tie with Joe Biden by the week’s end, and establish a commanding lead over Biden in popularity no later than 30 days (by the end of October 2019) early-to-mid January 2020.

Clearly, her message is increasingly, and rapidly resonating with voters.

In comparison, former Vice President Joe Biden’s ratings are largely flat-lined-to-declined, having started out at 29.0% on December 9, 2018, moved through a high of 41.1% on May 10, 2019, a 26.0% low on July 5, 2019, and yesterday (10-1-19) registered at 27.2%.

Today’s polling (10-2-19) indicates that Biden has slipped 1.1%, falling to 26.1%, while Warren has increased 1.4%.

Polling: 10-1-19

The present debacle involving Trump and his Ukraine phone call, combined with Republican operatives’ retaliatory tit-for-tat false claims about Joe Biden and his son Hunter, are not only taking a toll upon the POTUS among Independent voters and some Republicans, but polling suggests it may also very well be taking a toll upon Biden’s candidacy, even though numerous reliable sources – including American officials, and honest Ukrainian officials – have all said there was neither any violation of law, nor of ethical principles by either Biden.

Polling: To 9-17-19

What many observers are wondering about, is who will the other candidates’ supporters support once their candidate drops out? As it now stands, a total of 14 percentage points among the remaining candidates would be up for grabs.

Presently, polling to date clearly shows that all other candidates besides the Top 5 – Biden, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg, and Harris – are registering only single digits – much less than Kamala Harris’ 4.6%, and even less than Andrew Yang’s 3.6% – even though they may be good, or even excellent candidates.

2020 Democrats polling trend Biden Buttigieg Sanders Harris Warren

Polling: From inception to 8-28-19

While comparing President Trump’s DISAPPROVAL ratings for October 1, 2019, which are at 52.3%, while his APPROVAL rating is 43.8% – for a 96.1% total – it’s interesting to consider that 3.9% of those interviewed apparently don’t care one way, or another.

But what’s even more interesting – and perhaps even telling – is that at this point, polls show ALL of the Top 5 Democratic candidates – Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, and Kamala Harris – defeating Donald Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head presidential election match-up.

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