2020 Democratic Trends… and Pocahantas

U.S. Senator from Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren

Who’ll get the nod?

My money is on Warren.

Why?

She identifies a problem, lays out a case, and states a solution. She’s a mom, teacher, an attorney, a law professor, and now, a politician – a small-town Oklahoma girl who made good, despite the odds against her.

She gets it.

Despite the Current White House Occupant’s attempt to slap a derisive nickname on Senator Elizabeth Warren (ironically defaming Native Americans in the process), Senator Warren has done exceedingly well.
For those unaware of American history, Pocahontas was a Algonkian indigenous American, and daughter of Chief Powhatan, a princess who fostered peace among the Jamestown, Virginia English colonists/settlers.

She may be most renown for saving Captain John Smith’s life after he was captured by her father’s men.

Later, she converted to Christianity, was baptized as Rebecca, and accepted a marriage proposal by prominent settler and tobacco farmer John Rolfe, and was wed April 5, 1614.

“The Baptism of Pocahantas,” by John Gadsby Chapman, Artist; Oil on canvas 12′ x 18′, 1839; placed 1840 Rotunda U.S. Capitol

So the history is a dignified, and marvelous story, despite the Idiot-Ignoramus in Chief’s attempt to use a good name to defame her. It only shows what kind of miserably pitiful character he is.

But, more to the point.

The Marriage of Pocahontas to John Rolfe

If you’ve ever read a prospectus for any financial or investment vehicle – either stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etc. – you’ve probably read the following disclaimer:
“Past performance is no guarantee of future results.”

In essence, that simple statement expresses an idea about prognostication, and acknowledges that the methodology is more important than the current status. As renown hockey player Wayne Gretzky – considered the greatest hockey player of all time, whose career spanned 1979-1999 – once said, the key to his success as a hockey player was that, “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.”

So despite what Wall Street (and others) often tells us that “past performance is no guarantee of future results,” we still attempt to forecast the future based upon events in the past.

And so it is with politics, and many other things in life. And that’s where “hedging one’s bets” (an aspect of gaming/gambling meaning to reduce a loss on a bet or an investment by counterbalancing the loss in some manner) comes into play.

The 20 contenders who were part of the first two Democratic debates, have been winnowed in half.

Considering the now-winnowed field of 10 Democratic Presidential Candidate Nominees, there is still yet more winnowing to be done, and 10 months remaining until the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee, WI July 13-16, 2020 at the Fiserv Forum.

The candidates who participated in the Texas Southern University debate were:
1.) Joe Biden – former VP
2.) Bernie Sanders – Senator, VT
3.) Elizabeth Warren – Senator, MA
4.) Pete Buttigieg – Mayor, South Bend, IN
5.) Kamala Harris – Senator, CA
6.) Cory Booker – Senator, N
7.) Beto O’Rourke – former Representative, TX-16
8.) Amy Klobuchar – Senator, MN
9.) Julián Castro – former Secretary, Housing and Urban Development
10.) Andrew Yang – former attorney, entrepreneur, philanthropist

The next scheduled Democratic Debate will be October 15 and 16, at Otterbein University, Westerville, OH, and co-hosted by CNN and the New York Times, with moderators Erin Burnett, Anderson Cooper, and Marc Lacey.

To qualify to participate in that debate, the candidates must meet donor and support criteria, which includes obtaining 130,000 donors and scoring at 2% in four polls at least two weeks before the October debate. In the September debates, if a candidate did not reach the criteria, their cumulative total could carry over into the October qualifying period, which began June 28, the same day qualification for the September debate began. So for that reason, theoretically, the October debate could have more than 10 candidates.

Nevertheless… the field will continue to be winnowed.

And many oddsmakers at home, and abroad, are betting on Elizabeth Warren to be the nominee.

Below are the 5 candidates whom I believe will be the final contenders among the 10, and who will “duke it out” for supporters at July’s DNC Convention in Milwaukee.