Reading Democratic Tea Leaves, v.4.0

Of the Democrats, who do you think stands the BEST chance of getting elected?

There are now 4 top-polling candidates:
1.) Joe Biden, former Vice President to Barack Obama
2.) Bernie Sanders, current Senator from Vermont
3.) Elizabeth Warren, current Senator from Massachusetts
4.) Pete Buttigieg, former Mayor of South Bend, IN

No, I do NOT mean a “play it safe,” middle of the road” candidate like the Democrats chose in 2016.

And no, I do ~not~ mean ‘who do you think or hope will get elected,’ but rather instead mean to ask, ‘who do you think has the statistically best chance of being elected?’

Let’s look to history to help us answer that question.

In our nation’s 243-year history, there have been 57 Presidential Elections, 45 POTUSes, 9 of whom ran for second terms and lost, and only 3 since WWII – Ford, Carter, and Bush I.

The most recent one, George H.W. Bush, was Vice President during Reagan’s two terms, and lost to Bill Clinton in 1992.

Historically, since our nation’s founding, 7 of 9 one-term POTUSes who lost re-election have been Republican. The Federalist Party was a forerunner of the modern Republican party, as was the Democrat-Republican and National Republican.

In reverse chronological order, term in office, and party during office, they are:

1.) George H.W. Bush – 1989-93 – R
2.) Jimmy Carter – 1977-81 – D
3.) Gerald R. Ford – 1974-77 – R
4.) Herbert Hoover – 1929-33 – R
5.) William Howard Taft – 1909-13 – R
6.) Benjamin Harrison – 1889-93 – R
7.) Martin Van Buren – 1837-41 – D
8.) John Quincy Adams – 1825-29 – Democratic-Republican/National Republican
9.) John Adams – 1797-1801 – Federalist

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren – D

Historically as well, Vice Presidents do not get elected as President in their own right.

That means, apart from succession, when VPs have campaigned for the Office of the President, they have not won.

Only 13 former Vice Presidents have ever been POTUS, and arrived in office either through

Dear Democrats…

Y’know what the Democrats need to do?

I mean to refer to Bernie and Liz.

STOP DISSING Donald Trump!!!

Seriously.

Folks who are gonna’ vote for him are gonna’ vote for him.

What Democrats need is VISION –– CLEAR 2020 VISION, and beyond for America!

Allentown, PA – and manufacturing… is not coming back.

Detroit, MI – and automobile manufacturing… is not coming back.

Pittsburgh, PA – and steel… is not coming back.

Rochester, NY – and Kodak… is not coming back.

Flint, MI – with General Motors, and Ford… is not coming back.

The Rustbelt’s “Big Eight” cities:
Akron, Canton, Columbus, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dayton, Toledo, and Youngstown – which ALL owe their existence – except Columbus, the capital city – to manufacturing’s phenomenal rise in the 19th and early 20th century… are not coming back.

In short, America’s factories aren’t coming back.

And coal?

Coal – along with its toxic ash sludge’s inability to be safely or permanently stored anywhere – is DOA.

We all know it.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robots are taking our jobs – even in medicine – telehealth, robotic surgery… it’s ALL OVER!

What Bernie and Liz need to do is

Democratic Candidate Witching And Chartography

“Witching for water” is the colloquial term given to the use of an-often Y-shaped “divining rod” by a “witcher,” someone with allegedly special skill to find hidden underground water sources.

So, to “witch” for something is to employ an alleged skill with a simple, and readily-available tool (often as a common, everyday item with no seeming special qualities) to search for something hidden, and find it.

Sometimes also called “dousing,” “divining,” or “witching” for water is considered a fraudulent practice, also known as a pseudoscience, which has not and cannot withstand the rigors of independent scientific testing to validate the claims made by adherents, practitioners, and supporters.

Despite the overwhelming evidence contrary to the claims made by adherents, practitioners, and supporters, the practice remains somewhat popular today, especially among farmers who need water to irrigate their crops.

So again, to “witch” for something is to use readily-available common tools to find something hidden.

In this case, it’s polling data, and the Top Four Democratic Candidates for Party Nominee: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Pete Buttigieg.

A former VP, two U.S. Senators, and one Mayor of South Bend, IN, with an estimated population of 101,000, it’s a modest-sized college town (the University of Notre Dame is nearby) – the 306th most populous city in America – about half the size of Huntsville, AL, are contending to be the Democratic Party’s nominee in July.

The charts are telling, and from the outset, while demonstrating normal and up-and-down weekly chart, over the long-haul, the trends haven’t changed significantly.

What’s fascinating is Biden’s trend down, Bernie’s trend down, while Liz’s trend is up, along with Buttigieg’s trend. Again, that trend has been established from the outset.

The early chart is Polling: To 9-17-19.

The most recent chart is beneath, and is dated 12-27-19.

Notice something interesting: Only TWO candidates’ lines show positive movement– Elizabeth Warren, and Pete Buttigieg. All others show downward, or largely static trends: Bernie, Biden, and Harris, who has now dropped out of the race.

Note also the prospective intersecting dates, the points in time at which the candidates would overtake another in popularity, or support.

For Liz Warren, the first chart showed her overtaking Bernie in support in

Electing a god

Some Republicans and Trump voters/supporters have realized something that the Democrats, in large part, have not:

Their chosen candidate is not perfect – no, far from it.

And, that’s okay.

As I consider Mayor Pete, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, former VP Joe Biden, and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders — the top four Democratic nominee contender-candidates — each one of them has increasingly been attacked, either by another candidate (though not by name), or by the media/press who pointedly critique their ideas and prospective policy platforms as if they were already done, set in stone, or otherwise enacted into law, though those same media critics neither offer, nor point to, nor counter any idea, or offer with any prospective alternative solution(s) themselves.

In other words, rather than offer constructive criticism, the press just bitches, gripes, moans, groans, and complains.

That’s not good.

Somehow, over the years (and more so in recent history), the “media,” as it’s called nowadays, has come to think of, and present themselves as, impartial arbiters, seemingly non-critical thinking, individuals who are neither opinionated, nor fraught with their own biases, however hidden (or not) they may want others to believe that they are. That somehow, they — and only they — know the truth, and only they can be trusted to always tell the truth at all times, in all circumstances, forever and ever… amen.

That’s just simply not the case, nor has it ever been.

The “Fourth Estate,” as it has long been known (though it’s now often simply monikered as “the media”), consists of the Press which

Elizabeth Warren in Three Charts

MA Senator Elizabeth Warren -D

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren is steadily rising as the Democratic Party’s favored nominee for President.

As of October 1, 2019, aggregate polling averages from Real Clear Politics indicated that she was within 4.2 percentage points of tying with former VP Joe Biden in public approval to be the Democratic Party’s nominee for President.

Today’s aggregated average polling (10-2-19) shows that Warren has gained 1.4% points from yesterday, while Biden has slipped 1.1%.

Polling: 10-2-19

At this rate – given her candidacy’s current trajectory and trend, the current conditions, and barring unforeseen circumstances – by the end of the week, Elizabeth Warren will very likely tie with Joe Biden by the week’s end, and establish a commanding lead over Biden in popularity no later than 30 days (by the end of October 2019) early-to-mid January 2020.

Clearly, her message is increasingly, and rapidly resonating with voters.

In comparison, former Vice President Joe Biden’s ratings are largely flat-lined-to-declined, having started out at 29.0% on December 9, 2018, moved through a high of

2020 Democratic Trends… and Pocahantas

U.S. Senator from Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren

Who’ll get the nod?

My money is on Warren.

Why?

She identifies a problem, lays out a case, and states a solution. She’s a mom, teacher, an attorney, a law professor, and now, a politician – a small-town Oklahoma girl who made good, despite the odds against her.

She gets it.

Despite the Current White House Occupant’s attempt to slap a derisive nickname on Senator Elizabeth Warren (ironically defaming Native Americans in the process), Senator Warren has done exceedingly well.
For those unaware of American history, Pocahontas was a Algonkian indigenous American, and daughter of Chief Powhatan, a princess who fostered peace among the Jamestown, Virginia English colonists/settlers.

She may be most renown for saving Captain John Smith’s life after he was captured by her father’s men.

Later, she converted to Christianity, was baptized as Rebecca, and accepted a marriage proposal by prominent settler and tobacco farmer John Rolfe, and was wed April 5, 1614.

“The Baptism of Pocahantas,” by John Gadsby Chapman, Artist; Oil on canvas 12′ x 18′, 1839; placed 1840 Rotunda U.S. Capitol

So the history is a dignified, and marvelous story, despite the Idiot-Ignoramus in Chief’s attempt to use a good name to defame her. It only shows what kind of miserably pitiful character he is.

But, more to the point.

The Marriage of Pocahontas to John Rolfe

If you’ve ever read a prospectus for any financial or investment vehicle – either stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etc. – you’ve probably read the following disclaimer:
“Past performance is

Democratic Tea Leaves II

In a recent entry dated August 8, 2019, entitled Reading Democratic Tea Leaves I noted one, or two very fine, somewhat minor points overlooked by most pundits.

One, that like most other Democratic nominee candidates, former Vice President Joe Biden’s support has largely stagnated – even though it has been higher than most other candidates.

Vice President Joe Biden, Official Portrait 2013

And second, only two other candidates have had any SIGNIFICANT INCREASE in their level of support (as defined by polling) since the inception of their candidacy: South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren.

Since the announcement of his candidacy as the Democratic nominee for President, former Vice President Joe Biden’s support has gone from 29.0% to 30.8%. That’s an increase of only 6.21%.

October 26, 2016; South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg

In sharp contrast, “Mayor Pete” has gone from 1.0% and is now (August 10) at 6.5%, and has polled as high as 8.4% from April 20 through May 2. That’s an increase of 550% to date. If fluctuations are considered (low to high), that’s 740%.

Senator Warren, however, has gone from 5.3% and is now at 18.3% – her highest ever polling. That’s an increase, and fluctuation of 245.28%.

Senator Sanders started at

Reading Democratic Tea Leaves

The Democratic candidates’ field is as great for the upcoming 2020 General Election as the Republicans’ 2016 was – and, that may, or may not be a good sign.

The 2016 GOP clown car was populated by, among others, Donald Trump, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Ohio Governor John Kasich, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.

Aside from them, there were 10 others who withdrew before the primaries, so say it was a crowded field, was a gross understatement.

Now, it’s the Democrats’ turn.

The 20-candidate field has not yet been winnowed, per se – at least not by prospective primary voters.

Among them, is one of the last candidates to join that field was former Vice President Joe Biden, who had the advantage of name recognition among all voters, and potential voters.

Because of his name recognition advantage, Biden’s “popularity” within the massive field has led the next closest competitors – which are Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren – sometimes by double digits.

A notable game-changing exception was made following the first Democratic debate at The Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts in Miami, Florida, with NBC Moderators Savannah Guthrie, Lester Holt, Chuck Todd, Rachel Maddow and José Diaz-Balart on Night 2 (June 27) when California Senator Kamala Harris took former Vice President Joe Biden to task for his opposition as then-Senator from Delaware to busing to remedy and resolve the problem of segregation in California pubic schools.

Up until that time, Harris was polling 7.0%, while Biden was at 32.0%. After that night, support for Harris doubled to 15.2%, while Biden experienced a corresponding 6-point drop to 26.0%.

Since that high, Harris has continued to fall, and as of August 7 was polling at 8.3%.

Up until then, Sanders, the next-closest competitor, had fluctuated from 16.5% to 24.0% (his highest), to 14.0% (his lowest), and as of August 7, was polling at 15.8%.

Biden’s polling has been as high as