COVID-19: A Work In Progress

Active COVID-19 cases per nation ranked hierarchically as shown on the Johns Hopkins dashboard Sunday morning 8AM CST, 29 March 2020.

Good morning!
¡Buenos días!
Guten Morgen!
Bonjour!
早上好！Zǎoshang hǎo!
おはようございます！
Ohayōgozaimasu!
صباح الخير!
Buongiorno!

As I write this Sunday morning, March 29, 2020, it’s just a few minutes after 0800. More precisely, it is now 0811 CST DST.

“The Angel Of Death Victorious,” 1924 by Herman N. Matzen (1861-1938), Cleveland area artist/sculptor, Lake View Cemetery, Cleveland, OH, Haserot family plot.

According to figures available through the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 dashboard this morning, the United States now has 124,686 ACTIVE cases of COVID-19 novel coronavirus.

Yesterday, very nearly exactly 24 hours ago, there were 104,837. And, based upon calculations made the data, I had written that,

“If that pattern continues to hold, we could expect to see at least 127,902 cases by Sunday, 29 March 2020.”

While that exact number – the 127,902 which I calculated – has not “officially” been reached, the 2.54644% increase difference between the calculated estimate, and the actual figure, is numerically – if not also statistically – insignificant.

Further, 124,686 is 97.4855% of 127,902, which means there is but a 2.5144% difference between the two figures.

The point being…

We are effectively there now.

At this juncture, there seems to be – or, more accurately, there has been shown to be – no suggestion, nor hint of a lessening of the rate of increase, especially in the United States, of infections with COVID-19 novel coronavirus, and quite likely will not be for at least several more weeks.

So, let’s move along to other critically important, and very related matters.

“…pre-symptomatic shedding may be typical among documented infections.”

— Science (magazine), 16 Mar 2020, the journal of the American Association for the Advancement of Science on SARS-CoV2, aka novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, in an article entitled “Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2).” The article also stated that “The relative timing of viremia and shedding onset and peak versus symptom onset and peak has been shown to potentially affect outbreak control success,” which referenced research (Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable) published in the peer-reviewed journal “Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States” on April 20, 2004 about the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) outbreak the year before.

The simple TRANSLATION:

Yes,
COVID-19 is spread
by
those who
DO NOT
show signs
of sickness, or of infection,
with the virus.

The incubation period for COVID-19 is 2-14 days.

What that means, is that it takes between 2-14 days to SHOW SYMPTOMS.

In the mean time, folks can be – and are – running around everywhere “sharing the love,” which effectively means that they’re shedding the virus EVERYWHERE they go.

“Shedding” is the term which describes the spread of the infectious particles from the host organism.

Recall the infamous history of “Typhoid Mary” Mallon (1869-1938) who NEVER showed signs of infection with typhoid fever, yet effectively SPREAD TYPHOID FEVER EVERYWHERE she worked because she “didn’t believe” she was infected, or could carry the disease without showing symptoms. As a result of her recklessly careless behavior based upon her “failure to believe,”
sicknesses increased, and deaths occurred. (See also: “Mary Mallon (1869-1938) and the history of typhoid fever” https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3959940/)

The EXACT SAME principle is at work now.

It’s TOO LATE now for America to behave PROACTIVELY to “head ‘em off at the pass,” and thus, we behave REACTIVELY only AFTER it’s TOO LATE to PREVENT catastrophe.

But, we… er, the President, could have done very differently.