Warm Southern Breeze

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Posts Tagged ‘novel coronavirus’

BLS On Unemployment Figures: We Know We Were Wrong – We Were Just Kidding… Just Kidding!

Posted by Warm Southern Breeze on Sunday, June 7, 2020

If the workers who
were recorded
as
employed

but
absent from work

due to
“other reasons”
(over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical May)
had been classified
as

unemployed on temporary layoff,
the overall unemployment rate
would have been

about
3 percentage points higher than reported
(on a not seasonally adjusted basis).

However,
according to usual practice,
the data from the household survey
are
accepted as recorded.

To maintain data integrity,
no ad hoc actions are taken
to reclassify survey responses.

Below is the full image of their addendum on the report “THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION — MAY 2020,” which may be found on the BLS website as linked here.

The pertinent part is the final paragraph, which is pasted above, and appears in red.There you have it.

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics has OFFICIALLY STATED that the Present Unemployment Rate is THREE POINTS HIGHER than officially stated.

They noted also that in the three preceding months of March, April, and May 2020, that responses to the monthly survey were down -9.5%, -12.6%, and -15.1% correspondingly to the month, from last year for the preceding 12 months, and averaged.

Th agency noted also that “BLS and our partners at the Census Bureau take the misclassification error very seriously, and we’re taking additional steps to address the problem.”

Part of the problem, as they note, is with classification.

In a lengthy explainer, the agency wrote that, “In May, 8.4 million workers were classified as employed with a job but not at work during the survey reference week (not seasonally adjusted). Although lower than the 11.5 million not at work in April, this measure remains about twice the typical level at this time of the year. This likely reflects the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.”

Their explanation of “with a job but not at work” is apparently integrated into the idea of going to a central, or common location to work (such as at an office building, or factory site), and of that they wrote in part that, “BLS tabulates data on Read the rest of this entry »

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French Scientists Discover COVID-19 In December 2019 BEFORE The China Outbreak

Posted by Warm Southern Breeze on Tuesday, May 5, 2020

This information, which was reported just yesterday (Monday, 4 May 2020), is turning the entire understanding of this disease on its ear.

Previously thought to have originated in China, COVID-19 is now thought to have been spreading globally long before the outbreak in Wuhan, China ever occurred.

An interesting observation:
This individual –and– “Patient Zero” in Wuhan were BOTH fishmongers.

A germane question:
Could this virus be related to, or capable of being transmitted in aquatic wildlife?


Who: 42 year old man born in Algeria, lived in France for many years, worked as fishmonger

What: retrospective investigation for SARS-COV2 (novel coronavirus, aka COVID-19) in respiratory samples collected

Where: intensive care units (ICUs) of hospital north of Paris, France

When: December 27, 2019

Why: Presented to emergency ward with hemoptysis (coughing up blood/bloody sputum), cough, headache and fever, evolving for 4 days

How: RT-PCR test (reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction) the most sensitive technique for mRNA (genetic) detection and quantitation currently available

Additional Facts: Last trip was in Algeria during August 2019. One of his children presented with ILI (influenza-like illness) prior to the onset of his symptoms. His medical history included asthma, type II diabetes mellitus. Had not visited China.

See also: COVID-19 in France since December, hospital test suggests
Researchers testing old samples found COVID-19 in a man treated a month before France confirmed its first cases.
(https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/covid-19-france-december-hospital-test-suggests-200504154024084.html)

See also: French hospital discovers Covid-19 case from December
Man found to have had virus a month before government confirmed first cases
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/french-hospital-discovers-covid-19-case-december-retested)

See also: After retesting samples, French hospital discovers COVID-19 case from December
(https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france/after-retesting-samples-french-hospital-discovers-covid-19-case-from-december-idUSKBN22G20L)

See also: French hospital discovers country’s first known Covid-19 case, from December
A French hospital which has retested old samples from pneumonia patients discovered that it treated a man who had Covid-19 as early as Dec. 27, nearly a month before the French government confirmed its first cases.
(https://www.france24.com/en/20200505-france-s-first-known-covid-19-case-was-in-december)

See also: After Retesting Samples, French Hospital Discovers COVID-19 Case From December
(https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/05/04/world/europe/04reuters-health-coronavirus-france.html)

See also: Genetic Study Shows COVID-19 Was in France Weeks Before The First Case Was Reported
(https://www.sciencealert.com/genetic-investigation-reveals-covid-19-was-circulating-in-europe-before-cases-were-reported)


International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents

Available online 3 May 2020, 106006

Highlights

• Covid-19 was already spreading in France in late December 2019, a month before the official first cases in the country.
• Early community spreading changes our knowledge of covid-19 epidemic.
• This new case changes our understanding of the epidemic and modeling studies should adjust to this new data.

Abstract

The COVID-19 epidemic is believed to have started in late January 2020 in France. We report here a case of a patient hospitalized in December 2019 in our intensive care, of our hospital in the north of Paris, for hemoptysis with no etiological diagnosis and for which RT-PCR was performed retrospectively on the stored respiratory sample which confirmed the diagnosis of COVID-19 infection. Based on this result, it appears that the COVID-19 epidemic started much earlier.

SARS-COV-2 was already spreading in France in late December 2019


Introduction

After its onset in December 2019 in China, the new coronavirus (SARS-COV-2) spreads widely in several countries, causing COVID-19 illness.1 World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020.3 France reported the first cases of SARS-COV-2 related infection on January 24, 2020.5 Both cases had a history of travel to Wuhan.6 To the best of our knowledge, these 2 cases are believed to be the first confirmed cases in France. COVID-19 most commonly present with influenza-like illness (ILI).7 While China was facing COVID-19 outbreak, European countries were struggling with seasonal influenza.8 Clinical symptomatology between COVID-19 and ILIis similar,we therefore decided retrospectively to look for SARS-COV2 in respiratory samples collected in the intensive care units (ICUs) of our hospital near Paris.

Methods – Retrospective analysis

Selected records

We reviewed medical record of ICUs patients admitted for ILI between December 2, 2019 and January 16, 2020, with a negative RT-PCR performed at admission. Every respiratory sample collected in our hospital are Read the rest of this entry »

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10 GOOD Things COVID-19 Will Cause.

Posted by Warm Southern Breeze on Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Every period of change in human history has been preceded by chaos and upheaval.

COVID-19 novel coronavirus is exposing our weaknesses, our strengths, where changes are needed and must occur, and where we are performing well.

This illustration reveals ultrastructural morphology exhibited by the COVID-19 novel coronavirus. Note the spikes that adorn the outer surface of the virus, which impart the look of a corona surrounding the virion, when viewed electron microscopically. Image credit: CDC.

There will be positive outcomes, of course, one of which will be that it is no longer necessary for some people to assemble, or congregate in one place to work. It is being proven that work which can be performed remotely, i.e., from one’s residence, will be increasingly utilized, and that will be a net positive outcome in several ways.

Here’s a list of…

10 GOOD Things COVID-19 Will Cause.

• One, it will reduce going-to, and coming-from work-related commuting traffic volume.

• Two, it will increase employee satisfaction, insofar as one will not fight traffic in order to get to work, or home from work.

• Three, because fewer automobiles will be on the roadway, it will reduce automobile emissions, and therefore yield an environmentally net positive result.

• Four, because traffic will be reduced, navigation will be Read the rest of this entry »

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America’s Grocery Supply Chain Is Healthy

Posted by Warm Southern Breeze on Monday, March 23, 2020

With COVID-19 cornoavirus proliferating in the United States, and abroad, some grocery shoppers have begun panic purchasing. That behavior is not limited to Americans. Shoppers in other nations have also begun to panic purchase, which in turn, makes it difficult for those who genuinely need groceries to obtain them.

And at least one story has been published about people not being able to purchase much-needed food items, including one about a 51-year-old Critical Care Nurse in England who, after a 48-hour shift, wasn’t able to find any groceries for herself.

“Just stop it please”: Tearful Nurse urges the public to stop panic buying food after she was unable to buy basic items following a 48-hour shift.

Top Out of Stock Categories of grocery store items

There are other readily-observable phenomenological (def. a “method of inquiry concerned with the perception and experience of objects and events as the basis for the investigation of reality”) matters, and events, at work. One such matter is the “80-20 rule.”

Also known as the Pareto Principle, after the Italian economist and sociologist Vilfredo Pareto (1848-1923) who first described it, the rule, or principle certainly applies in this scenario.

Simply put, as it applies to consumption, the rule states that 80% of your product sales will come from 20% of your customers – or, if you prefer, 80% of consequences come from 20% of the causes, which thus asserts an unequal relationship between inputs (cause), and outputs (effect).

The 80/20 rule is borne out also by anecdotal observation, in which an Assistant Grocery Store Manager recently remarked to me that, “There are others who can’t buy things, because the same people are lining up at 6AM when the truck arrives and are buying basketfuls of the same things every time,” adding that, “It’s obviously way more than they need.”

Or, to put it another way, the suffering of 80% of the people who don’t have access to regularly-purchased items, is caused by 20% of the population. Things like that kinda’ gives you pause for thought, doesn’t it?

Further anecdotal evidence may be found among shoppers themselves, who report similarly, which is that a relatively small number of people are purchasing an inordinate quantity of select items, whatever they may be, and thus rapidly depleting available stock and inventories.

Kroger Spokesperson, Melissa Eads in Nashville, TN said that since Thursday, March 12, 2020, Kroger stores have seen a significant increase in the number of customers, and the quantities they’re purchasing. Kroger grocery store officials estimate that most customers are buying at least five times what they would normally buy.

And to buttress the idea that America’s grocery supply chain is safe, and secure, Greg Ferrara, President & CEO of the National Grocers Association has written that, amidst a national profusion of panic purchasing, that:

Food supplies are plentiful throughout the supply chain and are being replenished continuously to meet the demand. Although some consumers may experience temporary out of stocks in some categories or brands, such as hand sanitizer and paper goods, stores are re-filling shelves as quickly as possible. Supermarket associates are working diligently to quickly restock shelves and clean stores. And, while consumers may find purchase limits on some products that are in high demand, such as toilet paper and cleaning supplies, this is simply to ensure as many customers as possible are able to purchase what they need.”

But since when do people give heed to sound advice, eh?

After all, it was a Wisconsin Republican Congressman and Johnny Carson who were the cause of the “Toilet Paper” shortage scare in American, dating back to December 1973… and hasn’t shown any signs of letting up.

Following are industry observations about the grocery industry – or, more accurately as Consumer Behavior – in relation to COVID-19.

Read the rest of this entry »

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COVID-19 novel coronavirus

Posted by Warm Southern Breeze on Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Humor is always good medicine.

And to be certain, this pandemic is certainly no laughing matter, per se.

But, humor has ALWAYS helped people through difficult and dark times, trials and tribulations.

And, we’ll get through this one, together – just as we always have.

So, in the process of washing your hands, maintaining social distancing, avoiding crowds, and working from home (if you’re able), enjoy a couple adult beverages… or some other item to relax.

Yes, some of us won’t make it through. That’s a given. But, hopefully, our government’s response (no thanks to the Current White House Occupant, who eliminated the White House) has been piecemeal, at best.

See:
Cuts To Biosecurity In Trump Budget Leaves ‘The American People Very Vulnerable,’ Experts Say
KHN Morning Briefing (Kaiser Health News)
Summaries of health policy coverage from major news organizations
Tuesday, May 30 2017
https://khn.org/morning-breakout/cuts-to-biosecurity-in-trump-budget-leaves-the-american-people-very-vulnerable-experts-say/

See also:
Trump Calls For More Spending On Health Care So It’s ‘The Best Anywhere,’ But He Just Proposed Big Cuts
By Damian Paletta, Economic Policy Analysis, May 28, 2017 at 8:28 p.m. CDT
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/05/28/trumps-sunday-night-tweets-on-healthcare-and-taxes-contradict-what-the-white-house-said-just-last-week/

See also:
Trump Has Sabotaged America’s Coronavirus Response
As it improvises its way through a public health crisis, the United States has never been less prepared for a pandemic.
By Laurie Garrett, January 31, 2020, 11:07 AM
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump-united-states-public-health-emergency-response/

See also: Read the rest of this entry »

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