Biden whistles past Obama graveyard in New Hampshire Debate.

Yesterday evening’s Democratic Debate in New Hampshire, was the 8th of 12 in an ongoing series winnowing the party’s 2020 field of nominee candidates. The Friday night event which lasted from 8 – 11PM EST was held at St. Anselm College in Manchester, and was sponsored by ABC, WMUR, and Apple News.

Moderators George Stephanopoulos and David Muir of ABC, Linsey Davis, Adam Sexton, Monica Hernandez

Candidates former Vice President Joe Biden, former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, billionaire businessman/entrepreneur Tom Steyer, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, and businessman Andrew Yang rounded out the field.

https://twitter.com/538PollBot/status/1225977849829580801
“58% of Americans are dissatisfied with the size and influence of corporations in 2020 while 41% are satisfied, according to Gallup polling.”

Of course, most people are whistling past their own graveyards, whatever they may be – particularly since most Americans are only one paycheck, one illness, one job loss away from utter devastation and homelessness.

Candidate Biden was consistent throughout the debate, and never ceased to mention that he was with the former POTUS Obama. Clearly, he’s riding Barack’s coattails. Or, at least he’s trying to.

But, let’s look to history to see if we can discern anything of bearing for today.

From an earlier entry titled “Democratic Tea Leaves II“:

Biden, though he entered late, started polling at 29.0% purely on name recognition, alone – by virtue of his Vice Presidency to POTUS Obama. However, statistically, VPs don’t get elected to POTUS. It’s essentially a dead-end job, a veritable political graveyard.

As I had earlier written in the 6/12/2019-dated entry entitled 2020 Democratic Crystal Ball, in the 243-year history of our nation, “there have been 57 Presidential elections, of which only 14 Vice Presidents have ever been POTUS (24.56%), either through succession (because of the POTUS’ death in office, of which there have been 8; 4 natural deaths, and 4 assassinations), or through election independent of succession, of which there have been 5 – Adams, Jefferson, Van Buren, Nixon, and G.H.W. Bush.

“It’s worth repeating, that only 5 Presidents, who were elected independently of succession, were ever Vice President.

“That’s 5/45, or 11.1% – excluding Grover Cleveland, who was the only POTUS elected twice, not in succession, as the 22nd, and 24th POTUS.

“However… the United States Senate website writes this about Senators:
“To date, 16 senators have also served as president of the United States. Three Senators, Warren G. Harding, John F. Kennedy, and Barack Obama moved directly from the U.S. Senate to the White House.”

“That’s 16/45, or 35.5%, of all POTUSes who were ever a Senator. And 3 of the 16, or 18.75%, were elected as POTUS directly from the Senate.”

Again, 16 Presidents have been Senators. That’s over 3x as many as have been VP. And of the 5 VPs elected as President independently of succession, only Adams, Van Buren, and Nixon were ever Senators.

Clearly, Biden is up against some very poor odds, and significant statistical improbability, despite his present polling numbers – which again, have remained largely stagnated since polling began December 10, 2018 (29.0% to 30.8%).

And then, there’s the latest average of all national polls from RealClearPolitics which shows Biden continuing to decline. And, last, but by no means least, there’s the bookies… odds-makers who all show candidate Bernie Sanders leading the pack of nominee candidates by far, with a double digit lead over his nearest competitot, and candidate Biden trailing behind newcomer former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg – but, with a double digit lead against Senator Warren.

The race will further tighten after Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primary.

Stay tuned!

.

.