What Has Been Will Be Again, Que Sera, Sera

Come Tuesday, November 5, 2024, American voters coast-to-coast, north, south, east, west, and all points in between, including the District of Columbia, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands and the United States Virgin Islands, will cast ballots for the candidate of their choice to be the next President of the United States (POTUS).

The incumbent 46th POTUS, Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr., a Democrat, will face the Republican party’s nominee, who, as events are shaping up, now appears it will most likely will be the former and 45th POTUS, Donald John Trump.

Often monikered as “POS45” (Piece Of Shit 45), the former POTUS has practically single-handedly created a radicalized “MAGA” movement (Make America Great Again) within the Republican party consisting of often disaffected, mostly White, primarily rural voters which has taken hold in Deep South, formerly Confederate/slave states, some Rust Belt states, and others where voters over age 65 comprise the single largest segment of his supporters, including those of whom he said in Nevada 2016 after winning the Silver State’s Republican caucus, “I love the poorly educated!” In context, he said, “We won the evangelicals. We won with young. We won with old. We won with highly educated. We won with poorly educated. I love the poorly educated!,” while USA Today wrote, “Trump did well across the board in Nevada, garnering 45.9% of the vote, but he did even better among voters with a high school education or less. Fifty-seven percent of those voters supported him, according to entrance polls.”

Rarely-to-never in the history of our nation have partisans ever cast ballots for the candidate of the opposite party, that is, Republicans voting for Democrats, but POS45 has motivated many of those of sound mind to do so, leaving the obsequious, toady, and sycophants to their object of worship. But a rehash is a rehash, and 2024 is a rehash of 2020. And in 2020, Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr. defeated Donald John Trump.

The San Francisco Call began life on December 1, 1856, as the Daily Morning Call. Staunchly Republican in political outlook, the Call was popular with the working classes, and it was the city’s leading morning newspaper for several decades. By the summer of 1864, the Call was boasting the highest daily circulation in the city, and its readership continued to rise, going from 10,750 in 1865 to 41,066 in 1880. In 1884 it boasted a circulation double that of any other daily. Originally a four page daily, the Call also put out a weekly, published on Tuesdays, and a Sunday edition. One of the paper’s early writers was Mark Twain, who served as Nevada correspondent in 1863 and as reporter after he moved to San Francisco the following year. In just over four months as full time beat reporter, Twain produced some 200 articles on crime and the courts, theater and the opera, and politics.
Vol. 77, no. 85 (Mar. 5, 1895)-v. 115, no. 7 (Dec. 8, 1913).

And yet, polls are wishy-washy things, ever fluctuating according to which way the wind blows, and are neither stable, consistent, nor reliable. And with the miserably miasmatic state of affairs in news-gathering/reporting/news-telling/journalism/media these days, we have re-entered the era of so-called “Yellow Journalism,” which is today monikered as “click bait” online, because in broadcast media (radio & television) it’s all about “eyes on the set” which directly relates to the entity’s income gathering ability, insofar as it is tied directly to their advertising rates. More viewers/listeners=more money per spot/ad. Cynical, perhaps, but it’s just that simple.

While one looks to the past to predict the future — something which the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and others say should never be done for financials — i.e., “past performance is no guarantee of future results” — that is precisely what we do, look to the past to guide us, or predict the future.

Last week, for all 7 days, the sun rose in the EAST and set in the WEST, just as it did the week before, the month before, the year before, the decade before, the century before, and the millennium before. We can, therefore, reasonably say with a fairly high degree of certainty, that tomorrow, the sun will once again, rise in the EAST and set in the WEST — and we can accurately predict its rising and setting times according to the time of year, and to the date, because, “what has been will be again, and what has been done will be done again,” and Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr. is the only person who has defeated Donald John Trump. So let’s look at the past, to analyze it.

In the period of time in which polling of the two candidates occurred, from September 1, 2019 to March 3, 2024 (4 years 6 months 3 days, or 1646 calendar days), there are only 5 times in those nearly-5-years in which the 2 candidates’ favorability polling ever intersected — 0.3037%.

And until January 6, 2022 (2 years 4 months 6 days, or 859 calendar days), the Democratic candidate always polled above the Republican. Further, in that period of time, the Democratic candidate’s average favorability rating was 13.5%, while the Republican candidate’s favorability went from -12.5 to -10.7, from beginning to end, and ranged from a high of -6.8 to a low of -21.6.

In that very same period, the Democratic candidate started at 3.8 and went to -10.7, from beginning to end, and ranged from 14.7 high to -10.7 low. Further, the Democratic candidate had a positive rating for 435 calendar days, while the Republican candidate had none in the entire period of 4 years 6 months 3 days, or 1646 calendar days.

The Republican candidate’s favorability polling looks like a zig-zag sewing machine turned sideways — up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down, and never stable, changing one day to the next, one week to the next, in a bizarrely psychotic-type pattern.

The Democratic candidate’s favorability polling is much more stable, and while, like any poll, shows periods of fluctuation, up-and-down, it does so much more gradually, much more smoothly, and over a longer period of time than the Republican candidate.

And in fact, most of the polls over most of the period of time show BOTH candidates with a negative favorability rating, and the Republican candidate even more negatively perceived than the Democratic candidate.

Only twice in that total period of time (4 years 6 months 3 days, or 1646 calendar days) has the Republican candidate ever polled above the Democratic candidate; and the 2 total periods of time in which that ever occurred —
January 20, 2022 to August 29, 2022 (7 months 10 days, or 222 calendar days), and;
December 9, 2023 to March 3, 2024 (2 months 26 days, or 86 calendar days),
— is a GRAND TOTAL of 308 calendar days, or 18.712%.

In other words, the Democratic candidate polled favorably 81.288% of the time over that entire period of 4 years 6 months 3 days, or 1646 calendar days.

As well, the spread between the 2 candidates over that same period of time (4 years 6 months 3 days, or 1646 calendar days) is telling, with the Democratic candidate being +31.7 points above, to +5.6 for the Republican candidate. And even when, in the 5 times the 2 candidates’ favorability ratings intersected, they were both either identical, or only 2/10ths to 3/10ths of a point apart. But otherwise, on the whole, the Democratic candidate has clearly had the upper hand throughout the entire 4 years 6 months 3 days, or 1646 calendar days.

And next week, a poll may say something different.

In fact, it’s almost guaranteed that it will.

So, never you mind, and please ignore all the foaming-at-the-mouth wanna-be-soothsaying pontificating prognosticating pundits, crystal ball & tea leaf readers, regardless of the banner under which they write, or talk — whether the NY Times, WaPo, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox, MSNBC, NBC, WSJ, AP, Reuters, UPI, Axios, Bloomberg, NPR, PBS, AFP, Al Jazeera, BBC, CBC News, CTV News, DW-Deutsch Welle, France 24, The Globe and Mail, The Guardian, VOA,  etc., etc., etc.

You have just read the facts.

Here’s the chart: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president/trumpbidenfavorability.html