Research: Moderna’s mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine MORE EFFECTIVE Than Estimated

Scientists and researchers have released their findings of the effectiveness of Modern’s mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. Initial scientific estimates were that the vaccine would have an effectiveness of 68.5%. But after the lengthy process of laboratory analysis of large groups of participants, scientists found that the vaccine is 96.1% effective after both doses have been given. And, only about one-half of one percent of the recipients had any serious side effects – a phenomenally low rate.

The long-awaited results of an immunity effectiveness study of Moderna’s mRNA COVID-19 vaccine have been released.

And, there’s GREAT NEWS!

In part, laboratory test findings of  30,415 individuals who participated in the study from July 27, 2020 to October 23, 2020, have shown that the Vaccine is

MUCH MORE EFFECTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED!

Sneak Preview

The paper entitled “Immune Correlates Analysis of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Trial” – on the preprint server (a “sneak preview” before being officially published in a scientific journal) – may be found here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.09.21261290v1

Pertinent excerpts in red from the paper follow. 

Effectiveness First Estimated At 94%

Background — In the Coronavirus Efficacy (COVE) trial, estimated mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy against coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) was 94%. SARS-CoV-2 antibody measurements were assessed as correlates of COVID-19 risk and as correlates of protection.

How do we identify correlates of protection?

• “Correlates of protection are generally identified by comparing the immune response of those protected by the vaccine and so called ‘breakthrough cases’, where clinical disease manifests despite prior vaccination. In the case of the COVID-19 pandemic, the numerous vaccines developed have proven very effective with low incidences of breakthrough cases making the identification of potential correlates of protection a slow process. As a result, comparisons with previously published data relating to both natural infection and vaccine studies have been drawn.”

Blood Levels Checked 3 Times

Methods — Through case-cohort sampling, participants were selected for measurement of four serum antibody markers at Day 1 (first dose), Day 29 (second dose), and Day 57: IgG binding antibodies (bAbs) to Spike, bAbs to Spike receptor-binding domain (RBD), and 50% and 80% inhibitory dilution pseudovirus neutralizing antibody titers calibrated to the WHO International Standard (cID50 and cID80). Participants with no evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection were included. Cox regression assessed in vaccine recipients the association of each Day 29 or 57 serologic marker with COVID-19 through 126 or 100 days of follow-up, respectively, adjusting for risk factors.

Neutralizing Antibody Levels Highly Predictive Of Immune Protection

• Vaccine 96.1% Effective
• Vaccine EXTREMELY Safe — under ½ of 1% had serious side effects

Results — Day 57 Spike IgG, RBD IgG, cID50, and cID80 neutralization levels were each inversely correlated with risk of COVID-19: hazard ratios 0.66 (95% CI 0.50, 0.88; p=0.005); 0.57 (0.40, 0.82; p=0.002); 0.41 (0.26, 0.65; p<0.001); 0.35 (0.20, 0.60; p<0.001) per 10-fold increase in marker level, respectively, multiplicity adjusted P-values 0.003-0.010. Results were similar for Day 29 markers (multiplicity adjusted P-values <0.001-0.003). For vaccine recipients with Day 57 reciprocal cID50 neutralization titers that were undetectable (<2.42), 100, or 1000, respectively, cumulative incidence of COVID-19 through 100 days post Day 57 was 0.030 (0.010, 0.093), 0.0056 (0.0039, 0.0080), and 0.0023 (0.0013, 0.0036). For vaccine recipients at these titer levels, respectively, vaccine efficacy was 50.8% (−51.2, 83.0%), 90.7% (86.7, 93.6%), and 96.1% (94.0, 97.8%). Causal mediation analysis estimated that the proportion of vaccine efficacy mediated through Day 29 cID50 titer was 68.5% (58.5, 78.4%).

 

See also:

Antibody Levels Help Predict Immunity After A COVID Shot 

: Shots – Health News 

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/08/23/1029827996/new-evidence-points-to-antibodies-as-a-reliable-indicator-of-vaccine-protection

 

Terms to help understanding:

• cID – Culture Infective Dose, the amount of an infective agent which will produce infection in 50% of the cultures

• CI – Confidence Interval, statistical term indicating a range of values, and the probability at which a certain value will be found in that range

• IgG – Immunoglobulin G, also known as antibodies, a protein component of blood & body fluids, produced by immune response cells called plasma cells, is a defensive response to bacteria, viruses and exposure to other harmful antigens to prevent infection; is the most common type of antibody; IgA (15%), IgD, IgE, IgG (70-80%), and IgM are the types; each one has a different role; IgM responds first, increases, then gives way to IgG; IgA is found in tears, saliva, gastric secretions, breast milk, protects mucosal areas, including sinuses & lungs; IgD role not completely understood, not typically measured; IgE associated w allergies, allergic diseases, parasitic infections. The body has a “catalog” of IgG antibodies that can be rapidly reproduced whenever it’s exposed to the same antigen.

• mRNA-1273 – scientific “shorthand” for Moderna’s mRNA COVID-19 vaccine

• titer – a lab test measuring the concentration of any particular substance, such as antibodies, in a given volume of fluid (blood); used to determine immunity

• inverse correlation – a mathematical relationship between two things, in which when one is high, the other is low, and vice versa

• efficacy – the ability to produce desired results, as “effectiveness,” i.e., does it work?

• hazard ratio – the chance of an event occurring in the treatment, or control, group of a study

• immune correlates – a shortened form of “immune correlates of protection,” refers to immunity, asks the question “has immunity been obtained?” and is determined by a measurable immune response to a vaccine, statistically proven to protect against a particular disease

• serologic marker – refers to serum, the non-cellular component of blood, which includes antigens, antibodies, etc.; a measurement of findings associated with disease, or treatment

• SARS-CoV-2 – Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome COronaVirus 2, the scientific name of the pathogenic (disease causing) virus that causes COVID-19

• Cox regression – statistical term named for prominent British statistician Sir David Cox (b.1924), for a predictive model which determines the time is takes for a specific event to happen

• causal mediation analysis – mathematical test determining: 1.) Total effect of X on Y; 2.) Relationship between X and M; 3.) Relationship between M and Y, controlling for X, and; 4.) Determining if M is a full, or partial mediator. Mediation is the process through which an exposure causes disease.

Research: 550,000+ Firearm-Related Hospitalizations 2000-2016

States in the Deep South lead the nation in average per capita firearm-related hospitalizations.

Average Firearm Injury Hospitalization Rate per 100,000, 2000–2016

1.) Louisiana – 24
2.) Tennessee – 18
3.) Alabama – 16
4.) Missouri – 16
5.) Maryland – 16
6.) Michigan – 14
7.) Illinois – 13
8.) North Carolina – 13
9.) South Carolina – 13
10.) Mississippi – 13
11.) Arizona – 13
12.) Arkansas – 12
13.) Delaware – 12
14.) Pennsylvania – 12
15.) Nevada – 12
16.) California – 12
17.) Oklahoma – 11
18.) Texas – 10
19.) Kansas – 10
20.) Indiana – 10
21.) Ohio – 10
22.) Kentucky – 9
23.) Virginia – 8

The national average is 10.

Ongoing and recently updated research by the RAND Corporation – a nonprofit, nonpartisan, research organization working in the public interest to develop solutions to public policy challenges to improve communities nationally, and worldwide by making them healthier, and more prosperous, safer, and more secure – showed that nationally:

“In 2018, 39,740 individuals in the United States were killed by firearms, making firearm violence the second leading cause of injury death in the United States (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC], undated).

“As part of the Gun Policy in America initiative, RAND researchers developed a longitudinal database of state-level estimates of inpatient hospitalizations for firearm injury between 2000 and 2016. This database was first released in 2021 and is free to the public.

RAND researcher Dr. Andrew Morral, PhD who is the Senior Behavioral Scientist, and Director of the National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research there, tweeted recently (April 28) that:

“Why are firearm hospitalizations not correlated with gun ownership in observed state hospitalization data or our estimates? Because they chiefly result from criminal assaults (vs. suicides) and these are not correlated with household gun ownership.”

Why are firearm hospitalizations not correlated with gun ownership in observed state hospitalization data or our estimates? Because they chiefly result from criminal assaults (vs suicides) and these are not correlated with household gun ownership https://t.co/pqVOh9t4bT

— Andrew Morral (@AndrewMorral) April 29, 2021

This type of research is a phenomenally difficult proposition, and highly complicated undertaking, and the entirety of the paper is spent detailing and explaining their methodology, and sources, because not every state provides information to, or participates in HCUP, the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project.

As well, data had to be compared and cross-referenced with other similarly related databases, such as the FBI’s annual UCR – Uniform Crime Report.

And then, they get into the math – the statistical analysis – and explain the formulae used, which then has to be checked with other external mathematical models to determine, and ensure a high level of accuracy. In short, this is not “relaxing reading” by any stretch of the imagination – it is highly technical explanations of phenomenally difficult work, which only indirectly points to the significance of their findings.

HCUP is the Nation’s most comprehensive source of hospital care data, including information on in-patient stays, ambulatory surgery and services visits, and emergency department encounters. HCUP enables

The Alabama Attorney General’s Office Has IDIOTS Working There

This matter was just brought to my attention.

The figure 0.3% is 3/10ths of 1% (three tenths of one percent) – NOT “three one-thousandths” as they incorrectly wrote.

Any grade school child should be able to tell the difference.

Note the emboldened text highlighted in purple on the lower portion of the page.

And examine the dates…

NO ONE has caught that gross error since the time it was written – 2 years 4 months 20 days
or 28 months 20 days
or 124 weeks 3 days
or 871 calendar days

and updated –
1 year 7 months 26 days
or 19 months 26 days
or 86 weeks 2 days
or 604 calendar days.

If the folks working in that office are that dimwitted, or lazy – take your pick – what does that say about the rest of the state government?

Remember: Steve Marshall’s incompetency is precisely why former Governor Bentley wanted him in that office, in order to avoid prosecution.

The history of it all is utterly Machiavelian – Steve Marshall fired Matt Hart, a former Federal Prosecutor who was a tenaciously aggressive and fearsome Special Prosecutor for the State, who

Science Versus Science Fiction In Alabama Education

I find it strangely fascinating that so many are so fearful… particularly in the South, and in Alabama especially.

Two days ago many celebrated Cinco de Mayo – the 5th of May – by eating out at Mexican-themed restaurants, quaffing a few margaritas, or by making Mexican-styled eats at home. It’s a way, in part, to acknowledge solidarity with our Mexican brothers and sisters and commemorating Mexico’s 1862 victory over France at the Battle of Puebla during the Franco-Mexican War. A turning point in Mexican struggle for independence, the firefight pitted 2000 ragtag, poorly equipped Mexicans against 6000 well equipped, battle-tested French soldiers. By the time the French retreated from the all-day battle, 500 French, and 100 Mexican lives were lost.

Alabama State House
11 South Union Street, Montgomery, AL

But May 5 also marks another significant event, largely unknown – and certainly unrecognized – by many, if not most.

On May 5, 1925 John T. Scopes was arrested in Tennessee for teaching Darwin’s Theory of Evolution.

It certainly seems Southerners have had it out for Science for quite some time.

Now, like hogs wallowing in mud, Alabama politicians want to meddle even more in the stinking pot of their own making by… well, here’s the news item:

Alabama Common Core Math

According to Dr. Tommy Bice, Alabama State Superintendent of Education, high schools in the state have achieved an 80% graduation rate. While that sounds impressive, there is an underlying problem, which is this:

How do we know that the children being graduated are competent?

Competency is exemplified as being able to do something successfully. So if merely graduating high school was sufficient demonstration of competence, everyone with a high school diploma would be competent. But sadly, we know that is NOT the case. For example, one need only look to private high schools to so illustrate. Very few private high schools have any such problems. And, it is not to say that all public schools suffer problems. And yet, it is evidence as well that many courses taught in 1960, or even 1860 at the “high school” level are more advanced than those taught today.

For example, consider the following courses of study were required for a diploma of graduation from Middletown City High School, Connecticut in 1848:

Ask a silly question, get a silly answer. Yes, there’s such thing as a STUPID question.

The title says it all.

But the title doesn’t explain why.

Read on for more understanding.

On the FaceBook page of Loyola University New Orleans, a photograph was posted of a… well, here it is.

I don’t know how you did it, but…

Mandelbrot fractal pattern

 

You made me love you.

Unemployed Russian Man Wins US$1,000,000 Prize – May Reject It

“I am not a hero of mathematics. I am not successful at all, and I do not want to be observed by everyone. I do not think anything that I say can be of the slightest public interest.” – Dr. Grigori Perelman

Dr. Grigori Perelman, reclusive genius Russian mathematician, resolved the century-old Poincaré Conjecture.

Grigori Perelmen, 43, of St. Petersburg, Russia, may yet be again proving the truth of the words spoken October 1, 1939 by late British Prime Minister Sir Winston Churchill, that Russia “is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.”

Dr. Perelman stunned the world’s mathematicians by