In November, Arizonans voted overwhelmingly to legalize recreational sales of cannabis to adults.
The state’s fiscal analysis stated that “Annual state and local sales tax collections on these purchases may reach $88 million in the next several years. The initiative also requires a one-time transfer from the Medical Marijuana Fund of $45 million for the Department of Health Services, a university tuition program, and an impaired driving program.”
Among other provisions, as stated in its purpose, the “Act permits limited possession, transfer, cultivation, and use of marijuana (as defined) by adults 21 years old or older; protects employer and property owner rights; bans smoking in public places; imposes a 16% excise tax on marijuana to fund public safety, community colleges, infrastructure, and public health and community programs; authorizes state and local regulations for the sale and production of marijuana by a limited number of licensees; requires impairment to the slightest degree for marijuana DUls; transfers monies from the Medical Marijuana Fund; permits expungement of some marijuana violations; and prescribes penalties for violations.”
Distribution of taxes collected upon its sale would be as follows:
• 33.0% to community colleges
• 31.4% to local law enforcement and fire departments
• 25.4% to the state and local transportation programs
• 10.0% to public health and criminal justice programs
• 0.2% to the Attorney General for enforcement
The state estimates that “based on a projected tax base of $1 billion, total state and local tax collections would be $254 million, including $166 million to the Smart and Safe Arizona Fund.”
“In its Medium-Series Population Projections, the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity (OEO) estimates that Arizona’s population will have reached 7.59 million by 2023. Given the $137 estimate for per capita sales, the OEO population estimate implies Arizona would have $1.04 billion of recreational marijuana sales in 2023.”
$254,391,600
Their revenue and sales estimates are based upon western states experiences, and they wrote that, “Arizona marijuana sales may increase further after the third year. States with more than 3 years of sales data have experienced continued growth in years 4 and 5. In Colorado, Oregon, and Washington recreational marijuana sales grew by a weighted average of 20.5% in year 4. In Colorado, the only state with 5 full years of data, sales grew by another 11.2% in year 5. We do not attempt, however, to project past the third year due to the speculative nature of long-run forecasting.”
The Arizona analysis also examines the cost associated with expungement, meaning the legal elimination of any criminal record associated with whatever record is being expunged. They cited a Pew Charitable Trusts analysis in November 2017, which stated in part that, “California only had 1,506 applications for expungement its first year of legalization and Oregon saw only 1,206 petitions combined between 2015-2017. Furthermore, the 192,000 estimate includes all convictions for marijuana possession, whereas the initiative provides the expungement option only to those who were convicted of marijuana possession of 2.5 ounces or less.”
They also note as well, that “the initiative does provide a revenue source for DPS administrative costs. The initiative authorizes DPS to collect a “reasonable fee determined by the Director” for costs to “correct the petitioner’s criminal history record” unless the individual is indigent.”
Control, or rather, elimination of the illicit black market is also a strong motivator for government in the legalization, taxation, and regulation of cannabis, especially and particularly for Adult Recreational Use. To that end, Arizona’s fiscal analysts wrote that, “If the limited number of retail locations authorized under the initiative is insufficient to meet demand, then current marijuana users may be more likely to continue to purchase illegally or from medical dispensaries, potentially decreasing the size of the legal market.”
Elimination of the illicit black market was also a very strong motivating factor in Oklahoma’s recent liberalization of cannabis laws, particularly and especially for medical use. See “Oklahoma Has Become A Free Market Utopia For Weed,” published 11/2/2020 for more details. Of course as well, an “unintended consequence” for ALL states which have liberalized their cannabis laws, is an INCREASE in private enterprise, and entrepreneurship – the veritable “holy grail” of most Republicans… and Democrats, if folks would be honest about the matter.
Arizona’s fiscal analysts also acknowledge a very important, yet almost-overlooked matter: It is of local regulation. They write that, “the proposition grants Read the rest of this entry »
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The State of New Mexico has become the latest state to legalize cannabis for Adult Recreational Use (ARU). There are now 18 states, 1 locality (District of Columbia), and 2 protectorates (Guam, Northern Mariana Islands) that have done so, for a total of 21 governmental entities in the United States jurisdiction which have legalized ARU.
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