Research: Moderna’s mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine MORE EFFECTIVE Than Estimated
Posted by Warm Southern Breeze on Monday, August 23, 2021
Scientists and researchers have released their findings of the effectiveness of Modern’s mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. Initial scientific estimates were that the vaccine would have an effectiveness of 68.5%. But after the lengthy process of laboratory analysis of large groups of participants, scientists found that the vaccine is 96.1% effective after both doses have been given. And, only about one-half of one percent of the recipients had any serious side effects – a phenomenally low rate.
The long-awaited results of an immunity effectiveness study of Moderna’s mRNA COVID-19 vaccine have been released.
And, there’s GREAT NEWS!
MUCH MORE EFFECTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED!
Sneak Preview
Effectiveness First Estimated At 94%
Background — In the Coronavirus Efficacy (COVE) trial, estimated mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy against coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) was 94%. SARS-CoV-2 antibody measurements were assessed as correlates of COVID-19 risk and as correlates of protection.How do we identify correlates of protection?
• “Correlates of protection are generally identified by comparing the immune response of those protected by the vaccine and so called ‘breakthrough cases’, where clinical disease manifests despite prior vaccination. In the case of the COVID-19 pandemic, the numerous vaccines developed have proven very effective with low incidences of breakthrough cases making the identification of potential correlates of protection a slow process. As a result, comparisons with previously published data relating to both natural infection and vaccine studies have been drawn.”
Blood Levels Checked 3 Times
Methods — Through case-cohort sampling, participants were selected for measurement of four serum antibody markers at Day 1 (first dose), Day 29 (second dose), and Day 57: IgG binding antibodies (bAbs) to Spike, bAbs to Spike receptor-binding domain (RBD), and 50% and 80% inhibitory dilution pseudovirus neutralizing antibody titers calibrated to the WHO International Standard (cID50 and cID80). Participants with no evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection were included. Cox regression assessed in vaccine recipients the association of each Day 29 or 57 serologic marker with COVID-19 through 126 or 100 days of follow-up, respectively, adjusting for risk factors.
Neutralizing Antibody Levels Highly Predictive Of Immune Protection
• Vaccine 96.1% Effective
• Vaccine EXTREMELY Safe — under ½ of 1% had serious side effects
Results — Day 57 Spike IgG, RBD IgG, cID50, and cID80 neutralization levels were each inversely correlated with risk of COVID-19: hazard ratios 0.66 (95% CI 0.50, 0.88; p=0.005); 0.57 (0.40, 0.82; p=0.002); 0.41 (0.26, 0.65; p<0.001); 0.35 (0.20, 0.60; p<0.001) per 10-fold increase in marker level, respectively, multiplicity adjusted P-values 0.003-0.010. Results were similar for Day 29 markers (multiplicity adjusted P-values <0.001-0.003). For vaccine recipients with Day 57 reciprocal cID50 neutralization titers that were undetectable (<2.42), 100, or 1000, respectively, cumulative incidence of COVID-19 through 100 days post Day 57 was 0.030 (0.010, 0.093), 0.0056 (0.0039, 0.0080), and 0.0023 (0.0013, 0.0036). For vaccine recipients at these titer levels, respectively, vaccine efficacy was 50.8% (−51.2, 83.0%), 90.7% (86.7, 93.6%), and 96.1% (94.0, 97.8%). Causal mediation analysis estimated that the proportion of vaccine efficacy mediated through Day 29 cID50 titer was 68.5% (58.5, 78.4%).
• cID – Culture Infective Dose, the amount of an infective agent which will produce infection in 50% of the cultures
• CI – Confidence Interval, statistical term indicating a range of values, and the probability at which a certain value will be found in that range• IgG – Immunoglobulin G, also known as antibodies, a protein component of blood & body fluids, produced by immune response cells called plasma cells, is a defensive response to bacteria, viruses and exposure to other harmful antigens to prevent infection; is the most common type of antibody; IgA (15%), IgD, IgE, IgG (70-80%), and IgM are the types; each one has a different role; IgM responds first, increases, then gives way to IgG; IgA is found in tears, saliva, gastric secretions, breast milk, protects mucosal areas, including sinuses & lungs; IgD role not completely understood, not typically measured; IgE associated w allergies, allergic diseases, parasitic infections. The body has a “catalog” of IgG antibodies that can be rapidly reproduced whenever it’s exposed to the same antigen.• mRNA-1273 – scientific “shorthand” for Moderna’s mRNA COVID-19 vaccine• titer – a lab test measuring the concentration of any particular substance, such as antibodies, in a given volume of fluid (blood); used to determine immunity• inverse correlation – a mathematical relationship between two things, in which when one is high, the other is low, and vice versa• efficacy – the ability to produce desired results, as “effectiveness,” i.e., does it work?• hazard ratio – the chance of an event occurring in the treatment, or control, group of a study
• immune correlates – a shortened form of “immune correlates of protection,” refers to immunity, asks the question “has immunity been obtained?” and is determined by a measurable immune response to a vaccine, statistically proven to protect against a particular disease
• serologic marker – refers to serum, the non-cellular component of blood, which includes antigens, antibodies, etc.; a measurement of findings associated with disease, or treatment
• SARS-CoV-2 – Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome COronaVirus 2, the scientific name of the pathogenic (disease causing) virus that causes COVID-19
• Cox regression – statistical term named for prominent British statistician Sir David Cox (b.1924), for a predictive model which determines the time is takes for a specific event to happen
• causal mediation analysis – mathematical test determining: 1.) Total effect of X on Y; 2.) Relationship between X and M; 3.) Relationship between M and Y, controlling for X, and; 4.) Determining if M is a full, or partial mediator. Mediation is the process through which an exposure causes disease.
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