Warm Southern Breeze

"… there is no such thing as nothing."

2020 Election Results Points Toward Divided Government

Posted by Warm Southern Breeze on Wednesday, November 4, 2020

Previously entitled as: “Is this your “WTF America?!?” moment?”

As these words are being composed, it’s Wednesday morning, November 4, 2020.

Yesterday was the General Election.

Voters went to the polls nationwide to decide if they’d had enough, or if they wanted 4 more years.

Turnout was at all-time highs – literally. Not since 1908 has there been such voter participation. And for the greatest part, things went off without a hitch… despite what the incumbent Chief Executive said, whom is the current occupant of the public housing located at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

There were at least 2 improbabilities for both candidates:

• Impeachment of the POTUS – impeached presidents have never been re-elected (there are now only 3 – Andrew Johnson in 1868, Bill Clinton in 1998 during his 2nd term, and Trump in 2019, while Richard Nixon resigned in 1974 during his 2nd term before he could be impeached), and;
• For the challenger, the fact that historically, aside from succession, former Vice Presidents have not won election as President. Of the 13 former VPs who ever became POTUS, 8 were from Presidential succession, while the remaining 5 were elected in their own right. That’s 5/45, or 11.1% – and they were: John Adams, Jefferson, Van Buren, Nixon, and G.H.W. Bush.

And, as things now stand, there are states which – as the Associated Press characterizes it – are “too close call.” Among them, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan.

Florida has gone to the incumbent, so says the AP, and was a “must win” for the first term Republican President in order to stay competitive.

At the moment, the Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden, appears to be leading in Electoral College votes with 227 to the incumbent’s 213.

As things now appear, the election will be a squeaker, and regardless of which candidate wins, neither party will have a clear “mandate” from The People by which to govern.

A billboard on I-65 in Horse Cave, KY. (AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley)

The Senate, which previously had a narrow GOP majority, is likely still in the tight-fisted little hands of Kentucky Majority Leader “Moscow” Mitch McConnell, who handily defeated Amy McGrath, a retired Marine Lieutenant Colonel fighter pilot and Democrat, who herself barely edged by challenger Kentucky Commonwealth Legislator Charles “From the Hood to the Holler” Booker in the Democratic Primary. But to be certain, nothing is final in the Senate races as of yet, and the gubernatorially-appointed Republican multi-millionairess Kelly Loeffler (whose net worth is upward of $500 million) will face the Democratic Reverend Raphael Warnock in a January run-off for Georgia’s open U.S. Senate seat vacated by the medical retirement of Republican Johnny Isakson who was diagnosed with Parkinson’s Disease.

Meanwhile, in South Carolina, incumbent GOP Senator Lindsey “They Hate My Guts” Graham appears to have beaten back a strong challenge by Jaime Harrison, a Yale & Georgetown Law-educated attorney and Democratic Party Associate Chairman, by a similarly slim margin with 56.3% of 2.2 million votes cast, and 91% of all votes tallied. His high-profile position as Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman undoubtedly helped his re-election efforts as he presided over the hearings for Judge Amy Coney Barrett to fill the Supreme Court seat vacated by the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

Iowa apparently still wanted more of Senator Joni “I Castrate Hogs” Ernst, who fell flat on her face when she was utterly clueless – despite being raised on a farm – when asked about the per-bushel price of soybeans, during a debate remotely-conducted by the Des Moines Register with her Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield, who nailed her question about the per-bushel price of corn with a 100% accurate response.

But Democrats in general, despite winning Arizona’s Senate race didn’t win as big as they had hoped.

Former NASA Astronaut and Democrat Mark Kelly defeated the gubernatorially-appointed GOPer Martha McSally, whom voters had previously rejected in a head-to-head contest with Kirsten Sinema who replaced the retired Republican Jeff Flake, and was then gubernatorially-appointed to replace the gubernatorially-appointed Republican U.S. Senator John Kyl who resigned from fulfilling the unexpired term of the late longtime Senator John McCain. McSally has been passed around by the GOP like a bad penny, who simply must get ‘er in, one way, or another – by hook, or by crook.

And as widely predicted, Democrats lost one seat in Alabama previously won by former U.S. Attorney Doug Jones whom voters narrowly chose in a Special Election over twice-removed Republican State Supreme Court “10 Commandments Judge” Roy Moore to fill the unexpired term of Jeff Sessions… whom the President nominated, was confirmed as Attorney General by the Senate, and then promptly fired by the President shortly thereafter.

The hallmark of Jones career as a Federal prosecutor was in successfully obtaining an indictment in the cold case murder of the 16th Street Baptist Church bombing in Birmingham, when KKK members killed 4 little girls about 10:22 AM CST on an otherwise beautiful Sunday morning, September 15, 1963.

Jones lost to Florida carpetbagger and one-time ne’er-do-well former Auburn University Head Football Coach Tommy Tuberville whose solitary campaign platform was support for the incumbent President.

Alabama, which was separated from Mississippi in 1817, could be thought of as a somewhat unsuccessful separation of conjoined twins, is ever an anomaly and bizarrely peculiar outlier, which can always be counted upon to do the right thing… only after they’ve exhausted every other possibility.

In the House of Representatives, Democrats lost at least 5 seats to Republicans, thus narrowing the margins for Speaker Pelosi to either maintain the Speaker’s position, and similarly weakening any legislative agenda she and other Democrats might have had. She will doubtless be challenged for the position.

While vote counts remain underway in a handful of hotly contested states as referenced above, and final results likely won’t be known until later this evening, or perhaps even later, suffice it to say again, that regardless of the outcome – which by most accounts will be a squeaker – neither party will have a “mandate” to govern, and a “divided government” seems most likely.

Additional reports from the “Twitterverse” are clamoring for the resignation of statistician and political prognosticator Nate Silver of the website FiveThirtyEight, who proclaimed that “We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios our model thinks is possible,” and stated further that “Biden is favored to win the election” with 89/100 cases winning, to the incumbent’s 10 in 100.

Conservative political pollster Frank Luntz said in response to outcry over the abysmal failure by Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight to correctly find public opinion – the second consecutive such failure by political polling organizations in a major election – that “The political polling profession is done. It is devastating for my industry.” As of publication time, no other reputable polling organization such as Pew, Monmouth University, Quinnipiac University, Ipsos, etc., had any remarks on the failure.

Again, as things now stand, the AP says it’s still “too close to call” in less than a handful of states – GA, NC, and PA – which leaves History Professor Dr. Allan Lichtman as the lone man standing with his 13 Keys to the White House algorithm.

He was the exclusive predictor of the Republican candidate’s success in the 2016 General Election when no one else did – including his impeachment – and since 1980 has successfully indicated, or “predicted,” every Presidential winner, and further, predicts a 279 to 259 Electoral College victory for the Democratic challenger this year.

Regarding his algorithm, the so-called “13 Keys,” he wrote that “When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular vote.”

Stay tuned.

There’s more to come.

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