Reading Democratic Tea Leaves, v.4.0

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Of the Democrats, who do you think stands the BEST chance of getting elected?

There are now 4 top-polling candidates:
1.) Joe Biden, former Vice President to Barack Obama
2.) Bernie Sanders, current Senator from Vermont
3.) Elizabeth Warren, current Senator from Massachusetts
4.) Pete Buttigieg, former Mayor of South Bend, IN

No, I do NOT mean a “play it safe,” middle of the road” candidate like the Democrats chose in 2016.

And no, I do ~not~ mean ‘who do you think or hope will get elected,’ but rather instead mean to ask, ‘who do you think has the statistically best chance of being elected?’

Let’s look to history to help us answer that question.

In our nation’s 243-year history, there have been 57 Presidential Elections, 45 POTUSes, 9 of whom ran for second terms and lost, and only 3 since WWII – Ford, Carter, and Bush I.

The most recent one, George H.W. Bush, was Vice President during Reagan’s two terms, and lost to Bill Clinton in 1992.

Historically, since our nation’s founding, 7 of 9 one-term POTUSes who lost re-election have been Republican. The Federalist Party was a forerunner of the modern Republican party, as was the Democrat-Republican and National Republican.

In reverse chronological order, term in office, and party during office, they are:

1.) George H.W. Bush – 1989-93 – R
2.) Jimmy Carter – 1977-81 – D
3.) Gerald R. Ford – 1974-77 – R
4.) Herbert Hoover – 1929-33 – R
5.) William Howard Taft – 1909-13 – R
6.) Benjamin Harrison – 1889-93 – R
7.) Martin Van Buren – 1837-41 – D
8.) John Quincy Adams – 1825-29 – Democratic-Republican/National Republican
9.) John Adams – 1797-1801 – Federalist

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren – D

Historically as well, Vice Presidents do not get elected as President in their own right.

That means, apart from succession, when VPs have campaigned for the Office of the President, they have not won.

Only 13 former Vice Presidents have ever been POTUS, and arrived in office either through succession, or through election apart from succession.

A total of 8 POTUSes have died in office – 4 from natural death, and 4 assassinations.

A total of 5 POTUSes were former VPs – Adams, Jefferson, Van Buren, Nixon, and G.H.W. Bush.

It’s worth repeating:
Only 5 former Vice Presidents were ever elected as President.

That’s 5/45, or 11.1%.

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders – I

However, the United States Senate website states this about Senators:
“To date, 16 Senators have also served as President of the United States. Three Senators, Warren G. Harding, John F. Kennedy, and Barack Obama moved directly from the U.S. Senate to the White House.”

That’s 16/45, or 35.5%, of all POTUSes were ever a Senator. And 3/16, or 18.75%, were elected as POTUS directly from the Senate.

In order of their election as POTUS, those Senators, and their political affiliations, are:
1.) James Monroe – Democratic-Republican
2.) John Quincy Adams – Democratic-Republican/National Republican
3.) Andrew Jackson – D
4.) Martin Van Buren – D
5.) William Henry Harrison – Whig
6.) John Tyler – Whig, Independent
7.) Franklin Pierce – D
8.) James Buchanan – D
9.) Andrew Johnson – National Union, Democrat
10.) Benjamin Harrison – R
11.) Warren G. Harding – R
12.) Harry S. Truman – D
13.) John F. Kennedy – D
14.) Lyndon B. Johnson – D
15.) Richard M. Nixon – R
16.) Barack Obama – D

So, once again, let’s attempt to read Democratic Tea Leaves.

Here’s the most recent average polling chart of the top-performing Democratic nominee candidates, which shows the trend lines for each candidate, as well as individual polling points since inception, throughout the process, to date (Thursday, January 9, 2020).

Of course, all this boils down to the question:

Do You Drive Forward While Looking In The Rear View Mirror?

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