Warm Southern Breeze

"… there is no such thing as nothing."

So Far, It’s Liz’s To Lose

Posted by Warm Southern Breeze on Saturday, October 19, 2019

Biden Struggles To Reverse Fall

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/466515-biden-struggles-to-reverse-fall

“Biden has consistently cast himself as the candidate best positioned to defeat Trump in 2020, and electability has always been at the center of his message.”

—//—

It’s helpful to recall that Biden was the creator of the “electability” argument.

Think about it: Why would ANYONE make such an inane argument?

Such a matter or concern has never before been made.

Candidates and POTUSes have always been (and will continue to be) elected based upon their appeals to voters who think they’ll do the best job.

Vice President Joe Biden, Official Portrait 2013

To express concern for “electability” (defined as “who can beat candidate _X_?”) is to take the back seat of the low road, and to have already admitted defeat.

The article linked above clearly elucidates that message.

Besides… historically, Vice Presidents are NOT elected as POTUS.

In our nation’s 243-year history, aside from succession (Presidential death in office), only 5 former VPs have ever been elected as POTUS:
1.) Adams; 2.) Jefferson; 3.) Van Buren; 4.) Nixon, and; 5.) GHW Bush.

That’s out of 57 Presidential elections.

Expressed mathematically as the number of POTUSes, that’s 5/45, or 11.1%.

However… the United States Senate website writes this about Senators:

MA Senator Elizabeth Warren -D

“To date, 16 senators have also served as president of the United States. Three Senators, Warren G. Harding, John F. Kennedy, and Barack Obama moved directly from the U.S. Senate to the White House.”

That’s 16/45, or 35.5%, of all POTUSes who were ever a Senator.

And 3/16, or 18.75%, were elected as POTUS directly from the Senate.

Practically, Senators have a (68.91%) 69% GREATER chance to be elected POTUS.

So statistically, ”electability” favors Warren, or Sanders.

And as it’s looking now, it’s Warren’s to lose.

Regarding hypothetical match-ups with the top Democratic candidates, Trump has lost consistently to Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg, Biden, and Harris by a range of 1 to 18 points since polling on the question began in late March 2019.

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