Warm Southern Breeze

"… there is no such thing as nothing."

Reading Democratic Tea Leaves III

Posted by Warm Southern Breeze on Saturday, August 31, 2019

In keeping with the “Who will be the Democrats’ 2020 Presidential nominee?” theme, I present the following for your perusal.

According to the trend lines, barring any unforeseen events, Elizabeth Warren will overtake Joe Biden in average public support polling within the next couple months. And by July 13-16 – dates of the Democratic National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI – she will be within “striking distance” of becoming the presumptive nominee by being only 5 points below Biden in average polling popularity.

That is, of course, if “Sleepy” “Uncle Joe” Biden’s continued demonstration of foot-in-mouth disease, and discovery of his other troubling and long-time political faux pas and other problematic voting track records – such as being the father of the “Gun Show Loophole” by being instrumental in, and voting for the 1986 Firearm Owners’ Protection Act (FOPA) which the National Rifle Association (NRA) called “the law that saved gun rights” because it rolled back numerous regulations.

The Firearm Owners’ Protection Act (FOPA) created the so-called “Gun Show Loophole,” rapidly accelerated popularity of gun shows, allowed firearm sales via the U.S. Mail, and the Internet, allowed “straw purchases” of firearms, over-ruled at least 33% of the hundreds of lower court rulings interpreting the Gun Control Act, and undid at least 6 Supreme Court rulings.

Joe Biden, as Ranking Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committe was not merely a proponent of, and voted for the FOPA, he significantly helped advance it by unanimously voting it out of committee. So realistically and ultimately, he bears significant responsibility for the increase in mass shootings and gun violence in America.

“I give credit to Senator HATCH and the National Rifle Association for their willingness to compromise and develop a revised bill that would strike a fair balance between unnecessary restrictions and regulations on lawful owner-ship of rifles and handguns and the legitimate interests of law enforcement in carrying out their responsibilities. I believe the compromises that are now a part of this bill have resulted in a balanced piece of legislation that protects the rights of private gun owners while not infringing on law enforcement’s ability to deal with those who misuse guns or violate laws. During my 12% years as a Member of this body, I have never believed that additional gun control or Federal registration of guns would reduce crime. I am convinced that a criminal who wants a firearm can get one through illegal, nontraceable, unregistered sources, with or without gun control. In my opinion a national register or ban of handguns would be impossible to carry out and may not result in reductions in crime. … However, on the whole, I am satisfied with the revisions to the bill made in committee, and I believe this bill makes improvements to existing law. ”
– Delaware Senator Joe Biden, July 9, 1985 in Congressional Record – Senate, p18229


Note that when other candidates’ support declined, Warren’s increased – as seen by the May 9, 2019 to July 5, 2019 time frame – and has increased steadily since.

Research also indicates that supporters of candidates who have dropped out would mostly likely support Elizabeth Warren.

California Senator Kamala Harris, and South Bend, IN “Mayor Pete” Buttigieg, while trending up, at this juncture show less increase than Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, but also have less average polling support than either former Vice President Joe Biden, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, or Senator Elizabeth Warren.

While teevee talking heads, their talk radio tabloids cohorts, Op-Ed writers and news publishers, Sunday morning armchair quarterbacks, and pontificating political pundits positing “electability” go about their frothing click-bait hand-wringing by asking “can the candidate defeat Donald Trump?,” it should be borne in mind that there’s a tiny tid-bit of history which should be significantly considered in the matter, and it is this:

Rarely have Vice Presidents been elected as President.

While it has happened 5 times with Adams, Jefferson, Van Buren, Nixon, and G.H.W. Bush, history does not favor the election of former Vice Presidents as President, and only 5/45, or 11.1%, of POTUSes have ever been VP.

In fact, history is more favorably inclined toward Senators being elected as President. There have been 16 Senators elected as President, and 3 have been elected directly from the Senate. That’s 16/45, or 35.5%, which have been elected as President, having served first as Senator.

To date, the Democratic party’s Presidential nominee candidate field has been more than halved by the departure of candidates – either from their failure to qualify for debate, or by dropping out of competition.

So far, the following five candidates have ceased campaigning to be the DNC’s Presidential candidate nominee:

Jay Inslee
Washington Governor

Announced candidacy 3/1/19.
Dropped out 8/21/19.
Seth Moulton
U.S. Representative Massachusetts 6th District

Announced candidacy 4/22/19.
Dropped out 8/23/19.
Kirsten Gillibrand
New York Senator

Announced candidacy 3/17/19.
Dropped out 8/28/19.
Eric Swalwell
U.S. Representative California 15th District

Announced candidacy 4/8/19.
Dropped out 7/8/19.
John Hickenlooper
Colorado Governor

Announced candidacy 4/8/19.
Dropped out 7/8/19.


The three candidates who met the Donor requirement only, are:

Marianne Williamson
entrepreneur, spiritual advisor
Tom Steyer
billionaire business executive, activist
Tulsi Gabbard
U.S. Representative Hawaii 2nd District









The seven candidates who did not reach any competition threshold are:


Michael Bennet
Colorado Senator
Steve Bullock
Montana Governor
Bill de Blasio
New York City Mayor
John Delaney
former U.S. Representative Massachusetts 6th District
Wayne Messam
Mayor, Miramar, FL
Tim Ryan
U.S. Representative Ohio 13th District
Joe Sestak
former U.S. Representative Pennsylvania 7th District


One Response to “Reading Democratic Tea Leaves III”

  1. […] « Reading Democratic Tea Leaves III […]


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