Warm Southern Breeze

"… there is no such thing as nothing."

2019 Democratic Debate: Night 1

Posted by Warm Southern Breeze on Thursday, June 27, 2019

The clear leaders for the first night were Massachusetts United States Senator Elizabeth Warren, and New Jersey United States Senator Cory Booker.

Here’s some analysis.

Historically, Senators have been better poised to win the White House than Representatives, with 16 having become POTUS, while 18 Governors have become POTUS.

The United States Senate website writes this about Senators:
“To date, 16 senators have also served as president of the United States. Three Senators, Warren G. Harding, John F. Kennedy, and Barack Obama moved directly from the U.S. Senate to the White House.”

That’s 16/45, or 35.5%, of all POTUSes who were ever a Senator. And 3/16, or 18.75%, were elected as POTUS directly from the Senate.

The House of Representatives website states this about Representatives who later became POTUS:
“Since 1789, 19 Members of the House have served as President of the United States. Four Members — John Tyler, Millard Fillmore, Andrew Johnson, and Gerald Ford — were never elected to the Presidency, having succeeded a President who died or resigned. Only Gerald Ford was never successfully elected as either President or Vice President, though he served in both positions.”

For the House, that’s 19/45, or 42.2% who later became POTUS. However, only 1 – James Garfield – ever went directly from the House to the White House, and that’s 1/45, or 2.2%.

Since 1901, the two major parties have been evenly distributed – with 4 Democrats, and 4 Republicans – who were first Governor, and then POTUS, while overall, 7/17 (41.1%) were Republican.

And of the 17 individuals (in 18 occasions) who were Governor, then POTUS, there have been 9/17 (52.9%) POTUSes who were first Governor, and who were elected POTUS while Governor.

Conversely, the number of POTUSes who were Vice President, and Governor has been very few, with only 6 of the 17 (35.29%) ever having been Governor, Vice President, and President.

And of the 17 who have ever been Governor, and President, only 4 (23.5%) have ever been United States Senator, while an even more rarefied 3 (17.6%) have ever been Senator, Governor, Vice President, and President.

But, only 2 of the 17 (11.76%) have ever been Governor, Representative, Senator, Vice President, and President:
John Tyler, and Andrew Johnson.

James Garfield was the only POTUS ever elected directly from the House of Representatives (1/45, or 2.2%).

John Quincy Adams is the only POTUS who ever served in the House of Representatives after being elected POTUS.

Presidents Who Were First Governor
Occurrence POTUS
Number
Name Presidential
Term
Political
Party
Vice President VP
Number
Vice Presidential
Term
Governor
State
Gubernatorial
Order
Gubernatorial
Term
Elected
While
Governor
United States
Senator
Senatorial
Term
House
of
Representatives
House
Term
1 3 Thomas Jefferson 1801-1809 Democratic-Republican Yes 2 1797-1801 Virginia 2 1779-1781 No No No
2 5 James Monroe 1817-1825 Democratic-Republican No Virginia 12; 16 1799-1802; 1811 No Yes 1790-1794 No
3 8 Martin Van Buren 1837-1841 Democratic Yes 8 1833-1837 New York 9 1829 No Yes 1821-1888 No
4 10 John Tyler 1841-1845 Whig, Independent Yes 10 1841 Virginia 23 1825-1826 No** Yes 1827-1836 Yes 1816-1821;
1829-1837
5 11 James K. Polk 1845-1849 Democratic No Tennessee 9 1839-1841 No No Yes 1833-1839
6 17 Andrew Johnson 1865-1869 National Union;
Democratic
Yes 16 1865 Tennessee 15 1853-1857;
1862-1865
No** Yes 1875 Yes 1842-1853
7 19 Rutherford B. Hayes 1877-1881 Republican No Ohio 29; 32 1868-1872; 1876-1877 Yes No Yes 1865-1867
8 22 Grover Cleveland 1885-1889 Democratic No New York 28 1883-1884 Yes* No No
9 24 Grover Cleveland 1893-1897 Democratic No New York 28 1883-1884 No* No No
10 25 William McKinley 1897-1901 Republican No Ohio 39 1892-1896 Yes No Yes 1877-1884;
1885-1891
11 26 Theodore Roosevelt 1901-1909 Republican Yes 25 1901 New York 33 1899-1900 Yes*** No No
12 28 Woodrow Wilson 1913-1921 Democratic No New Jersey 34 1911-1913 Yes No No
13 30 Calvin Coolidge 1923-1929 Republican Yes 29 1921-1923 Massachusetts 48 1919-1921 Yes*** No No
14 32 Franklin D. Roosevelt 1933-1945 Democratic No New York 44 1929-1932 Yes No No
15 39 Jimmy Carter 1977-1981 Democratic No Georgia 76 1971-1974 No No No
16 40 Ronald Reagan 1981-1989 Republican No California 33 1967-1974 No No No
17 42 Bill Clinton 1993-2001 Democratic No Arkansas 40; 42 1979-1980; 1983-1993 Yes No No
18 43 George W. Bush 2001-2009 Republican No Texas 46 1995-2000 Yes No No
* Grover Cleveland, President for two non-consecutive terms, is counted as only one individual of the nation’s 45 Presidents, and one of the 17 who had been a state’s Governor.
** Elected Vice President, ascended to the Presidency upon the death of the President, but never elected President in his own right.
*** Elected Vice President, ascended to the Presidency, and later elected President in own right.

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