Presidential Political Prophesy

As we wind down the final two years of President Barack Obama’s second term, speculation is arising concerning who will become the GOP’s Presidential nominee. At this point, there is much less speculation among Democrats about who will contend for the race, although Hillary Clinton does seem to be positioning herself early for a run at the Democratic party’s nomination.

Given the increasing inoperability of the radicalized GOP (even though they have wrested solid control of the House and Senate, but not enough to override a presidential veto), and their tendency toward government shutdown, brinksmanship, and extremism, some have said they would prefer to see a Democratic presidential successor, though there may be little evidence to support the notion such a thing will occur.

Some have said “That doesn’t help the Democrats” and that, “a Republican president doesn’t help anyone but corporations.” While there may be merit to both statements, it should be observed that a spirit of cooperation has become eroded to the point that there seems little chance that statesmanship and compromise for the good of the whole will occur… even given the Republican majority in the House and Senate. The radicalized GOP’s infighting even has Speaker Boehner up in arms, and not merely for his impotence and inability to control the party now hijacked by Right-Wing Extremists.

Which is where we begin the prophesy.

Mark my words: The GOP is showing their true colors, and come 2016 Election, they’ll be out on their ears, the House & Senate will return to Democratic majority (and finally be able to get some things done), and the President will be a Republican.

When there are enough members in agreement (regardless of party affiliation), they can override any presidential veto. It happened with President Clinton (1993-97 & 1997-2001) when the GOP controlled the House and Senate in the 104th Congress (1995-97), 105th Congress (1997-99), and 106th Congress (1999-2001).

The 107th Congress (2001-03) had a Republican House and Democratic Senate.

President Clinton signed the Financial Services Modernization Act (which repealed the Glass-Steagall Act), in conjunction with the Commodity Futures Modernization Act which legalized unsupervised trading of derivatives, led to the financial meltdown termed as “the Great Recession.”

Why did he do that?
Two, perhaps three reasons:
1.) There were enough votes to override any Presidential veto;
2.) By signing the bills into law, it would be perceived by the GOP and others as a cooperative, affirmative gesture, and;
3.) He was a shill for Big Money Corporate America.

Examining the historical presidential record since FDR, the office of President has been moderated between Democrats & Republicans. With the possible exception of 1-term GHW Bush following 2-term Reagan, there is no suggestion that a Democrat will follow a Democrat, or that a Republican will follow Republican. There is more suggestion, in fact, that a Vice President would become President following the in-office death of a sitting President, than there is for a Democrat to follow a Democrat.

GHW Bush is 1 of only 3 VPs who were elected to one term then subsequently defeated.

And Ford, though he had the GOP’s nomination, lost the subsequent election. Interestingly also, he is also the only U.S. President to have never been elected. He was appointed Vice President when Spiro Agnew resigned, and then became President upon Nixon’s resignation – a double successor to resignations.

Of the 14 VPs who later became POTUS, 8 were because of death, and only 4 were elected.

There is perhaps even less evidence to suggest that Joe Biden will campaign for President… though most VPs do, and lose the party’s nomination and election.

At this juncture, Hillary is the de facto Democratic nominee (phew!), and will draw a significant amount of lightning, and garner a great deal of negative press. She was given the SOS position to placate her, and she’s already shown that she’s not Presidential material by shooting herself in the foot with the email fiasco of her own making when she was SOS.

Make no mistake – Hillary is a sleaze bag of the First Order.

A Democratic woman who has significantly more character, moxie and hutzpah is Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D, MA), who has said at this point, that she will not run. Her ascendancy is emerging, and in the coming days & years, will show herself as a STRONG advocate for the people. Upon completion of the 2016 presidency – which most assuredly will be a one-term Republican – she will campaign for President. Aside from Geraldine Ferraro, she is perhaps the BEST candidate for a female president in years.

Of note, Ferraro, who died in 2011, was a former NY state prosecutor, served as Ambassador to the United Nations Commission on Human Rights from 1993-96 in the Clinton administration, supported Hillary, and served on her presidential campaign.

Unless… all this may be moot of course, if we have a Bush v Gore “hanging chad” redux. Then, it’s “back to the future.”