Warm Southern Breeze

"… there is no such thing as nothing."

Hurricane Sandy Pummels East Coast, Stresses Cities’ Weak Infrastructure

Posted by Warm Southern Breeze on Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Like many, I’ve read a few stories, and seen a few pics from the landing of Hurricane Sandy on the United States Eastern seaboard.

Honestly, it’s difficult to go throughout the day not hearing at least one story about the extreme climatic conditions that’ve been wreaking havoc for thousands of miles, stretching North into Canada and South into the Appalachian foothills of Tennessee & North Carolina from the hurricane’s epicenter located in the New York City & New Jersey areas.

Though unlike many, I’ve not stayed glued to the weather news or developments.

Extreme climatic events in remote affected areas – unusually early and deep snowfall, including heavy rain – have accompanied this unparalleled severe weather event. Yet one of the odd things about this storm, is that – as hurricane strength is measured – it’s not a powerful storm.

Hurricane measurements grade storm intensity according to wind strength, and no other factor. Storms are placed into ascending Categories 1 – 5 depending upon wind speed associated with the storm. So, by the standards established, Hurricane – now Tropical Cyclone Sandy, which has only had maximum winds of 80 mph – has been rather puny and weak. It’s just barely a hurricane.

What has made this storm so amazing is it’s size, which has stretched for well over 1,100 miles from end-to-end. In fact, Sandy covers 1.8 million square miles, from the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio Valley, into Canada and New England.

However, when considering the destruction that has been, and can be wreaked, the severity of damage from “storm surge” – oceanic waters washing ashore and flooding of low-lying and flood-prone areas – can be phenomenally devastating.

“On October 29, 2012 at 11 p.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Sandy was just 10 miles (15 km) southwest of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, near 39.8 North and 75.4 West. Sandy was still a hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph (120 kph) and moving northwest at 18 mph (30 kph). Sandy’s minimum central pressure had risen to 952 millibars. The hurricane-force-winds extended 90 miles (150 km) east of the center of circulation. Tropical-storm-force winds, however, went much further, as far as 485 miles (780 km).

“Hurricane Sandy has caused significant damage in New York City and along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Flooding has been reported from Maine to Virginia During the morning hours on October 29 (Eastern Daylight Time), nearly eight million people were without power this morning up and down the East coast. The Appalachian Mountains received some heavy snow from western Maryland down to Tennessee and North Carolina As much as 26 inches of snow had fallen in Garrett County, Maryland by the morning of October 30. According to Reuters news, flooding along the U.S. East Coast was extensive.”

Five ≥70 m/s, ≥137 kts
≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h
Four 58-70 m/s, 113–136 kts,
130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h
Three 50-58 m/s, 96–112 kts
111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h
Two 43-49 m/s, 83–95 kts
96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h
One 33-42 m/s, 64–82 kts
74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h
Additional classifications
Tropical
storm
18-32 m/s, 35–63 kts
39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h
Tropical
depression
<17 m/s, <34 kts,
<38 mph, <62 km/h

What has made this storm so amazing is it’s size, which has stretched for well over 1,100 miles from end-to-end. In fact, Sandy covers 1.8 million square miles, from the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio Valley, into Canada and New England.

Having made those observations, I’d like to share something about the obvious… which may not be so obvious.

And, it is that we, in this nation, are in sore need of updating, strengthening and reinforcing our infrastructure to help preserve, protect and defend our people from damage that accompanies severe weather events.

‘What is infrastructure,’ you ask?

“Infrastructure includes things like roads, bridges, waterways, electrical power grid, utilities (of all sort), dams, flood prevention, hospitals, etc. The OED defines infrastructure as the “basic physical and organizational structures needed for the operation of a society or enterprise.” Sometimes also called “economic infrastructure,” it also comprisesthe services and facilities necessary for an economy to function.” The American Society of Civil Engineers includes the following items as infrastructure, and has graded these items of American infrastructure according to their quality and robustness throughout the United States:

Even the CIA, in their World Factbook, has identified one aspect of America’s economic troubles by observing that “Long-term problems include inadequate investment in deteriorating infrastructure.”

Surely, by now, everyone knows and understands that federal spending on infrastructure is always a wise investment in the present and future, precisely because Materials and Manpower ALWAYS come from the PRIVATE sector. The long-term advantage of federal spending on economic infrastructure is that it creates capacity for private enterprise and entrepreneurs to fulfill their functions, and expand. And in the case of preventative efforts – such as to ameliorate flooding – it saves lives and property, and minimizes loss. (Isn’t that what insurance is all about?)

Now that we’re only days away from the November General Election, it is quite true that our nation faces a decision about what path to take, about how to proceed.

I cannot predict nor foretell with any degree of accuracy what the coming days will bring, though I certainly have my ideas of what I hope will happen. However, the problem I’ve addressed is neither Democrat, nor Republican. It’s not same sex, or heterosexual. It’s not Black, White, Asian, Indian, or Hispanic. It’s neither rich, poor, nor middle class. It’s neither Union nor Open. It’s not management nor worker. It’s not male, or female. It’s not city or country. It’s not farmer, laborer, factory worker, entrepreneur, business executive, or banker. It’s neither young, nor old. It is American. It affects us all. And we have the power to change. We have the power to move forward. We have the power.

Let’s use that power.

Here’s an update from weather.gov on Sandy, which has now been classified as a Tropical Storm:

Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy Continues To Weaken Over Pennsylvania

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy was located about 50 miles east-northeast of Pittsburgh, Pa. The system is moving to the west-northwest at about 10 mph. Various watches, warnings and advisories remain in effect from the Northeast coast to the Great Lakes. For information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local NWS forecast office.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 34...CORRECTED
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL182012
0500 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2012

CORRECTED FOR NEXT ISSUANCE TIME.

...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER
PENNSYLVANIA...

SUMMARY OF 0500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.8N 79.2W
ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...ENE OF PITTSBURGH PENNSYLVANIA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...72 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. 
GALE WARNING ARE IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST COASTS.

FLOOD AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES.

BLIZZARD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME WESTERN MARYLAND
AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE...EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND
EXTREME WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 0500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 40.8 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H. 
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CANADA
ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...72 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

HAZARDS
-------
WIND...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES.

STORM SURGE...EVEN THOUGH WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEEN
SUBSIDING...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE COULD
STILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS APPROACHING HIGH TIDE.  THE
WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE...

UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT

ELSEWHERE…ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA TO MASSACHUSETTS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY.
 DUE TO STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES IS POSSIBLE.

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
THE SURGE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST EXPOSED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.  FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING STORM TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION FROM SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ACROSS 
DELAWARE...MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA.
 ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SNOWFALL...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO FAR WESTERN
MARYLAND...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES.  THIS WILL BRING
STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS TO 2 TO 3 FEET OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND 1 TO 2 FEET OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY
AND THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 5 PM EDT

...WASHINGTON DC...
WASHINGTON 5.1 NW                    5.83
WASHINGTON/NATIONAL                  4.78                     

...DELAWARE...
GEORGETOWN                          10.20
DOVER 6.4 WNW                        9.62
MILFORD                              9.55
INDIAN RIVER ACRES                   9.49
REHOBOTH BEACH                       9.37       
CLAYTON 6.6 W                        8.62
DELANEY CORNER                       8.33
MILTON                               8.30            
SMYRNA 2.7 SSE                       8.30                     
SEAFORD 2.3 SSE                      8.27                     
FELTON 3.6 NE                        8.00
VIOLA                                7.84                   
GEORGETOWN 5.8 W                     7.76                     
NEWARK 3.9 SSW                       7.68                     
MAGNOLIA 2.4 NW                      7.60                     
DELMAR 4.3 E                         7.13
WILMINGTON ARPT                      4.34                     

...MASSACHUSETTS...
EAST MILTON                          3.03
LEOMINSTER 1.5 S                     2.92                     
NATICK 1.7 NNE                       2.85                     
NORTON 1.8 NNE                       2.80                     
ACTON 1.3 SW                         2.76                     
MILLIS 0.6 SSE                       2.65                     
NORTHBOROUGH 0.6 SSE                 2.60                     
NORWOOD 1.3 NW                       2.59
FITCHBURG 1.6 SSW                    2.58                     
LOWELL 1.9 ENE                       2.55                     
ANDOVER 1.5 W                        2.48
BEDFORD/HANSCOM FIELD                2.40                         

NANTUCKET MEMORIAL ARPT              2.01                         

...MARYLAND...
EASTON 0.7 NNW                      12.55                     
GREENSBORO 1.4 ENE                  10.53                     
QUEENSTOWN 2.6 S                     9.89                     
TRAPPE 3.5 NE                        9.78                     
BISHOPVILLE 3.1 E                    9.48                     
DENTON 5.8 WSW                       9.18                     
PRINCESS ANNE 4.4 WSW                8.81                     
PASADENA 2.6 ESE                     8.60
PATUXENT RIVER NAS                   8.29                     
LA PLATA 5.8 SE                      8.23
SALISBURY RGNL ARPT                  7.41
OCEAN CITY MUNI ARPT                 7.20
BALIMORE SCIENCE CENTER              7.10
ANNAPOLIS - US NAVAL ACADEMY         7.08                       
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON INTL ARPT       6.61

...NORTH CAROLINA...
SALVO 0.9 NNE                        8.09                     
AVON 0.7 NE                          8.00                     
COROLLA 3.2 SSE                      7.66                     
DUCK 0.3 SE                          7.22                     
KILL DEVIL HILLS 2.5 NNW             6.47
HATTERAS/BILLY MITCHELL AP           6.26                      
COROLLA 11.7 NNW                     5.90                     
KITTY HAWK 4.0 NNW                   5.89                     
TRENT WOODS 1.3 SSE                  4.11                     
JAMESVILLE 6.1 SW                    3.84                     
JACKSONVILLE 2.0 E                   3.75                     
HOLLY RIDGE 4.8 ENE                  3.63                     
ELIZABETH CITY 10.5 NNW              3.56                     
MERRY HILL 3.8 E                     3.51

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...
GORHAM 3.1 S                         4.85                     
CENTER SANDWICH 4.9 E                4.57                     
RANDOLPH 1.4 NE                      4.51                     
NEWBURY 1.6 NW                       4.00
JAFFREY MUNI ARPT                    3.83                     
EFFINGHAM 0.9 NNW                    3.35                     
NEWBURY 4.0 SE                       3.07                     
HILLSBOROUGH 2.1 NNW                 3.00                     
BROOKLINE 2.1 SW                     3.00                     
MADISON 1.7 SE                       2.99                     
GREENVILLE 1.1 ENE                   2.96                     
BROOKFIELD 0.9 WSW                   2.91                     
UNITY 3.2 ENE                        2.83                     
MILFORD 2.7 SE                       2.77                     
NASHUA/BOIRE FIELD                   2.62

...NEW JERSEY...
WILDWOOD CREST 0.6 NNE              11.91
NORTH WILDWOOD                      10.24
WEST CAPE MAY                        9.37                     
LOWER TWP 2.2 NE                     8.41
ERMA                                 8.20
ATLANTIC CITY                        8.15
CAPE MAY                             8.10       
WOODBINE 0.8 NNW                     7.84                     
UPPER TWP 3.2 SE                     7.75                     
HAMILTON TWP 2.1 SE                  7.56                     
WOODBINE 5.1 NE                      7.52
NEWPORT                              7.30                     
CAPE MAY 0.4 NNW                     7.28                     
VINELAND 2.6 WSW                     7.07
ESTELL MANOR                         7.06
CEDARVILLE                           7.00                    
EGG HARBOR TWP 1.3 NW                6.83                     
LINWOOD 0.7 SSW                      6.82                     
UPPER DEERFIELD TWP 1.9 E            6.22                     

...NEW YORK...
SHERMAN 0.4 ENE                      3.42                     
LOCKPORT 2.8 ENE                     3.31
NIAGARA FALLS INTL ARPT              3.27                     
LANCASTER 4.1 ENE                    3.26                     
ELMA CENTER 0.7 SE                   3.06                     
DANSVILLE 1.0 ENE                    3.06                     
LOCKPORT 0.8 NE                      3.05                     
WEST ALMOND 3.6 SW                   3.04                    
LITTLE VALLEY 1.1 N                  2.96                     
KENNEDY 0.3 NE                       2.96                     
PENDLETON 1.4 NE                     2.93                     
ORCHARD PARK 0.5 N                   2.90                         

...OHIO...
KIRTLAND 0.9 SW                      5.69                     
MAYFIELD 0.2 NW                      5.10                     
NORTH RIDGEVILLE 2.8 SSW             5.06                     
PAINESVILLE 3.8 SSW                  5.02                     
ELYRIA 3.0 SE                        4.77                     
BROADVIEW HEIGHTS 1.5 NW             4.44
ASHTABULA CO. ARPT                   4.36
CLEVELAND-HOPKINS INTL ARPT          4.36                  
AVON 1.6 SW                          4.14                     
BRUNSWICK 0.5 NE                     4.08                    
PARMA 1.9 NNW                        3.96                     
RICHMOND HEIGHTS 0.4 NNE             3.88
LORAIN/ELYRIA                        3.85                  
WAKEMAN 4.6 NNE                      3.77                     
ELYRIA 0.4 SE                        3.70                     
MONTVILLE 1.2 SSE                    3.65

...PENNSYLVANIA...
HANOVER 5.4 S                        7.61                     
SCHELLSBURG 2.6 WNW                  7.32                     
GLEN ROCK 2.2 ESE                    6.54                     
MALVERN 0.5 NNE                      6.32                     
LANDENBERG 1.8 ENE                   5.96                     
NEW SALEM 0.3 WSW                    5.92                     
LITTLESTOWN 3.7 WNW                  5.84                     
LATROBE 0.6 NW                       5.76                     
WEST CHESTER 1.8 SE                  5.54                     
HANOVER 3.0 WSW                      5.51                     
ABBOTTSTOWN 2.4 N                    5.43

...RHODE ISLAND...
WOONSOCKET 1.3 ESE                   1.87
MANVILLE 0.2 NE                      1.76
PAWTUCKET/NORTH CENTRAL ST ARPT      1.57                    

...VIRGINIA...
OCEANA NAS/SOUCEK                    9.57
CASHVILLE .01 S                      9.38                     
WHITE STONE 8.0 SSW                  8.96                     
GREENBACKVILLE 0.4 WNW               8.64                     
PORT HAYWOOD 1.0 SE                  8.59                     
ONLEY 0.6 SE                         8.47
WALLOPS ISLAND                       8.45                     
ONANCOCK 3.9 SW                      8.39                     
VIRGINIA BEACH 1.7 NE                7.99                     
YORKTOWN 0.8 SE                      7.73                     
NEWPORT NEWS 5.8 NE                  7.63

...WEST VIRGINIA...
SHENANDOAH JUNCTION                  4.46                     
FALLING WATERS 2.4 NW                4.36                     
SLANESVILLE 2.1 SE                   3.99                     
MCMECHEN 6.0 E                       3.56                     
MORGANTOWN/HART FIELD                3.17                     
CHARLES TOWN 2.5 NE                  3.15                     
BUNKER HILL 0.8 WNW                  3.06                     
SPRINGFIELD 2.3 ESE                  3.04                     
BOOTHSVILLE 1.4 SE                   2.83                     
MIDDLEBOURNE 0.3 ENE                 2.80

SNOWFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 5 PM EDT

..KENTUCKY...
PAYNE GAP                            14.0
LYNCH 3S                             12.0
ELKO 1NW                              9.0
BENHAM 3S                             6.0

...MARYLAND...
REDHOUSE                             29.0
FINZEL                               24.0
OAKLAND                              24.0
DEEP CREEK LAKE                      20.0

...NORTH CAROLINA...
COVE CREEK 10NW                      24.0
FAUST                                24.0
NEWFOUND GAP                         22.0
ELK PARK                             14.0
BULADEAN                             12.0
BAKERSVILLE 5N                       11.0
BEECH MOUNTAIN 1 SE                  10.0
ASHLAND                               9.0
FLAT SPRINGS 1E                       7.0
LANSING 6NW                           5.0
CRUSO 3 ESE                           5.0
CRESTON                               4.0 

...OHIO...
BELLEFONTAINE 2N                      3.0

...PENNSYLVANIA...
CHAMPION 4SE                         13.0
LAUREL SUMMIT                        10.0
MOUNT DAVIS                           9.0

...TENNESSEE...
GATLINBURG 7SE                       22.0      

...VIRGINIA...
NORTON 2S                            24.0
TAZEWELL 2N                          15.0
WISE 6E                              14.0
LEBANON                              12.0
HONAKER                               8.0
CLINTWOOD 2WSW                        4.0
BURKES GARDEN                         3.0

...WEST VIRGINIA...
DAVIS                                28.0
NETTIE                               24.0
TERRA ALTA                           24.0
BEVERLY                              21.0
BAYARD                               19.0
BEAVER                               18.0
CRAIGSVILLE                          17.0
WEBSTER SPINGS                       17.0
FAYETTEVILLE 11E                     15.0
SHADY SPRING                         14.0
MORGANTOWN 3SE                       12.0
SNOWSHOE 1S                          11.0
CHERRY GROVE 3WSW                    10.0

WIND GUSTS
-----------
SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR FROM EARLIER IN THE
EVENT

...CONNECTICUT...
MADISON                                85
BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT                     76
GROTON                                 76
GREENWICH                              70

...MAINE...
BATH                                   76
PORTLAND JETPORT                       63
KENNEBUNK 2NE                          62

...MARYLAND...
LAYTONSVILLE 1ESE                      76
OCEAN CITY                             74
ANNAPOLIS                              69
ARBUTUS                                68
FREDRICK 1NE                           62

...MASSACHUSETTS...
CUTTYHUNK                              83
WELLFLEET                              81
BARNSTABLE                             79
WRENTHAM                               77

...MICHIGAN...
FORT GRATIOT                           74
TOLEDO HARBOR                          66
PORT SANILAC                           65
SOUTH BASS ISLAND                      63
SOUTH HAVEN 1W                         60                  

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...
GOSHEN                                 70
LONDONDERRY                            62
PORTSMOUTH INTL AIRP                   60

...NEW JERSEY...
TOMPKINSVILLE 2N                       90
SURF CITY                              89
TUCKERTON                              88
MONTCLAIR 1N                           88
NEWPORT                                87
SANDY HOOK NOS BUOY                    87
DENNISVILLE                            81
CLIFTON                                80
NEWARK                                 78 
ATLANTIC CITY                          77
BAYONNE 1ENE                           77

...NEW YORK...
ISLIP                                  90
PLUM ISLAND 4 ENE                      85
SYOSSET                                82
POINT LOOKOUT 1E                       80
JFK                                    79

..OHIO...
BURKE LAKEFRONT ARPT                   67
CLEVELAND HOPKINS ARPT                 63
SOUTH BASS ISLAND                      62

...PENNSYLVANIA...
ALLENTOWN                              81
BENSALEM                               76
BUSHKILL CENTER                        70
PHILADELPHIA INTL ARPT                 68
MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT                   66
MOUNT AETNA                            64
WIND GAP                               62

...RHODE ISLAND...
WESTERLY                               86
WARREN                                 73

...VIRGINIA...
CHESTER GAP 3NNE                       79
WINTERGREEN 4 NW                       72

...WEST VIRGINIA...
RANSON 1 NNW                           65
KEYSER 2 SSW                           64
MARTINSBURG ARPT                       60

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

GERHARDT/KREKELER/SULLIVANFORECAST POSITIONS
------------------
INITIAL 30/2100Z  40.8N 79.2W  POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12HR VT 31/0600Z  42.1N 80.2W  POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24HR VT 31/1800Z  44.3N 78.6W  POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36HR VT 01/0600Z  47.6N 77.0W  POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 01/1800Z  51.8N 77.3W  POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 02/1800Z  ABSORBEDTROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
THIS EVENING AS IT INTERACTS WITH A COLD CANADIAN TROUGHOVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN...VERY STRONG WINDS...AND POSSIBLY FLOODING THROUGH TUESDAY.
— End Changed Discussion —
&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
— Changed Discussion —
SANDY REMAINS A HURRICANE AS OF THE 2 PM EDT NHC UPDATE...LOCATED
110 MILES SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ AND MOVING TO THE NW AT 28 MPH.
OTHER KEY PLAYER IS A HI AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPR-LVL TROF
THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF PHASING WITH SANDY AS IT CONTINUES ITS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LOSING A WARM-CORE STRUCTURE. LGT TO
MODERATE RAIN (WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN) WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
AFTN AND EVENG HRS AS SANDY MOVES ONSHORE. SANDY IS THEN EXPECTED
TO SLOW DOWN AND MOVE ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER OVRNGT. AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND...THE SFC LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY WEAKEN AS YET
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO REINFORCE
THE UPR-LVL TROUGH. LOW TEMPS TNGT RANGE FROM THE UPR 30S OVER THE
PIEDMONT TO THE MID 40S OVER THE LWR EASTERN SHORE/EXTREME SE
VA/NE NC.THE FOLLOWING ARE EXPECTED FORECAST IMPACTS DURING THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD:PRECIPITATION/FLOODING POTENTIAL:
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FA (STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING)...WHERE
ANYWHERE FROM AN ADDITIONAL 1-3"+ IS POSSIBLE...UP TO 1-1.5" OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. LIKELY POPS FOR THE NIGHTIME PERIOD
OVER NE NC...CATEGORICAL FOR THE REST OF THE FA. DETAILS FOR TUE
ARE INCLUDED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD DISCUSSION BLO.INCLUDED MENTION OF A CHC FOR LGT SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN OVER
THE PIEDMONT LATE TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. ALTHOUGH NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH WARM/WET GROUNDS...(NAM) MODEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SNOW MIXED IN...AND SREF CHCS FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW ARE AROUND 30-40% THERE.WINDS:
AS TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY MOVES ASHORE THIS EVENG...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN. THIS WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO
QUICKLY INCREASE. HIGH WIND WARNINGS (W/SW WINDS 30-40 MPH W/ GUSTS
OF 60+ MPH) AND WIND ADVISORIES (FOR WIND GUSTS OF 45+ MPH) REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH WIND WARNING ALSO INCLUDES RIC METRO
AREA AND REMAINDER OF SW CWA UP TO THE EXISTING WIND ADVISORY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF THE EVENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA WILL GENLY OCCUR
THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SANDY DEEPENS AS SHE PUSHES NORTH
OF VA/NC BORDER. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING DEEPER
MIXING/STEEPER LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE FA. THE LONG DURATION OF
STRONG WINDS (OVER 48 HOURS) WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGER IMPACT ON
POTENTIAL POWER OUTAGES THAN IF THE WINDS WERE STRONG FOR A
SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME. THIS COULD ALSO AFFECT RETURN TO SERVICE
TIMES FOR ANYONE WHO LOSES POWERDURING THIS STORM. ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY BY LATER SHIFTS ONCE IT BECOMES
MORE APPARENT HOW QUICKLY SANDY WILL WEAKEN ONCE IT PUSHES ASHORE.
— End Changed Discussion —
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